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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

MD 0537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX South Plains into western north TX and southwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164... Valid 240330Z - 240530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe storms will continue late this evening and potentially into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Some upscale growth is underway with a storm cluster southeast of Amarillo, with evidence of accelerating and expanding outflow, and development of new storms to the northeast of the primary bowing segment. A 79 mph gust was recently measured near Silverton, TX with this cluster. This evolution is likely being aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, as observed in recent VWPs from KLBB. In the short term, supercells embedded within this cluster will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, while some increase in severe-wind potential could accompany the growing cold pool. Longer-term evolution of this cluster remains uncertain, as it encounters greater downstream CINH with time. However, if the cold pool can continue to grow and organize, and potentially encompass ongoing semi-discrete cells to the east of Lubbock, then some severe threat will spread into parts of western north TX and southwest OK late this evening into the early overnight. Depending on short-term observational trends, local watch extension and/or new watch issuance may need to be considered prior to the Midnight CDT expiration time of WW 164. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 32990038 33130095 33970242 34370252 35000100 35099924 33949875 33309872 32969929 32909996 32990038 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels, the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada. At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south. ...Central and southern Plains... MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here, widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS border during the evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels, the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada. At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south. ...Central and southern Plains... MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here, widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS border during the evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels, the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada. At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south. ...Central and southern Plains... MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here, widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS border during the evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 Read more