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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 28 19:25:08 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more