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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 28 17:29:02 UTC 2025.

Kerrville remained in Stage 3 water restrictions as the Guadalupe River was flowing at just 22 cubic feet per second (cfs), compared to the normal of 90 cfs for this time of year. The region has been in drought for three straight years, allowing the dryness to intensify. The public was urged not to replant grass or replace any vegetation this year to conserve water. Spectrum News 1 - Austin (Texas), April 17, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more