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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan... Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains... Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest later this afternoon through late evening... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Western Wisconsin Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 Read more