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WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 180 TORNADO IA MN SD 281730Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

MD 0585 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST IA...FAR NORTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...far eastern SD...southwest MN...northwest IA...far northeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281541Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated convection may develop over the next couple of hours from far eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota, northwest Iowa, and possibly northeast Nebraska. Large hail and damaging gusts would be initial risk, though a tornado risk also could increase with time/eastern extent. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite/Day Cloud Phase RGB shows deepening cumulus developing along the surface boundary extending southward across eastern SD into northeast NE. Ahead of this boundary, broken cloudiness has allowed for filtered heating, and temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s F. Meanwhile, a corridor of mid 60s F surface dewpoints is overspreading the region. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast soundings suggest MLCIN has eroded, though warmer temperatures at 700 mb remain, which may limit instability through the 850-700 mb layer in the short term. Initial convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, though could become surface-based with time and eastward extent. Hi-Res CAMs are fairly inconsistent this morning, but generally suggest that convection will increase ahead of the surface low/southward trailing boundary in the next couple of hours. Given favorable shear, with enlarged and favorable curved low-level hodographs already in place amid moderate MLCAPE, convection could develop rapidly once large-scale ascent increases toward midday/early afternoon. Initial activity may favor large hail and damaging gusts early in convective evolution, with an increasing tornado risk with time/eastward extent. Timing for convective initiation and initial coverage is a bit uncertain, but trends are being monitored and a watch may need to be issued in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... LAT...LON 43099782 44979694 45249674 45369652 45479614 45479576 45269532 44909523 44219503 43319488 42859504 42519536 42269607 42219634 42159708 42189767 42339802 42619804 43099782 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0180 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. More probable corridors of greater threat are apparent over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A consolidated shortwave trough will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, while a southern-stream trough over the Southwest to northwest Mexico slowly moves east. Primary surface low near the northern ON/QC border will quickly progress towards the Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Forecast scenario is marred by uncertainty regarding evolution of remnant convection on Tuesday morning in the Midwest to Lower OH Valley, and signals for weaker mid-level lapse rates/instability relative to yesterday. Consensus of guidance suggests this morning convection should persist east and strengthen early in the diurnal heating cycle into the Upper OH Valley along related large-scale outflow. This could temper the northern extent of overall severe-storm coverage/intensity, as destabilization ahead of the cold front becomes limited. A distinct outlier in guidance, the 12Z ARW-NSSL, still indicates a favorable scenario for a more widespread wind and embedded hail threat, centered on the level 3-ENH risk area. The northern extent of the severe threat appears more conditional, but a few supercells remain possible with strong deep-layer shear and greater large-scale ascent in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes. ...West TX to the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period along a quasi-stationary front that should shift slowly south via convective outflows. With persistent moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies downstream of the AZ/NM trough, supercells and organized clusters are anticipated along the baroclinic zone. Peak severe threat should remain diurnally driven as differential heating across the composite front/outflows increases. The most probable corridor for supercells producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes appears to be from parts of the Permian Basin into southwest OK during the late afternoon. This activity should consolidate into broad clusters/MCSs by early evening with small-scale bowing structures possible. This should support isolated to scattered severe gusts as well before convection subsides. Another round of isolated severe is expected in the Permian Basin/TX South Plains vicinity Tuesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens south of the convectively modulated front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more