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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...IA/MN/WI through early tonight... A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization. Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards possible. Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...TX/OK through early tonight... Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and damaging winds. ..Thompson.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ...Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ...OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Day 2 Update... Elevated Fire weather concerns will remain across southern New Mexico and far West Texas as modest mid-level flow aloft over a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer remains in place. Extended Elevated highlights into the Davis Mountains/Big Bend areas based on latest model guidance consensus and existing dry fuels. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region in response to an approaching trough will promote accelerating surface winds from the south and southwest Tuesday. Although dewpoints will be increasing through the day, above normal temperatures well into the upper 70s to lower 80s will support relative humidity 25-30 percent range by early afternoon. The relatively warm and dry air mass combined with southwest winds of 15-20 mph will promote elevated fire weather conditions across New Jersey and adjacent areas of southeast Pennsylvania and far southern New York. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more