Aggregator

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-015-027-029-039-049-053-071-073-077-121-129-137- 145-153-159-169-173-175-181-290040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK RINGGOLD STORY TAYLOR UNION WARREN KSC005-013-041-043-061-085-087-117-127-131-149-161-177-197- 290040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN DICKINSON DONIPHAN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY Read more

WW 183 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 282200Z - 290500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Iowa Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to continue developing this evening while posing a threat for very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter. A few tornadoes also appear likely, with a couple of strong tornadoes possible with any sustained supercell. Scattered severe/damaging winds with peak gusts to 65-75 mph may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Des Moines IA to 35 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW 182... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 184 SEVERE TSTM IA NE SD 282300Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday evening from 600 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercells along and near a cold front should pose a threat for mainly large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter through the evening. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Yankton SD to 20 miles south of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-290040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC003-027-043-051-107-139-173-179-290040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON KNOX PIERCE THURSTON WAYNE SDC009-027-067-083-125-127-135-290040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FRM TO 10 E MKT TO 10 NE MSP TO 50 SSW DLH. ..SPC..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC023-025-033-037-067-069-079-081-083-089-091-109-131-151-161- 187-189-195-197-290040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW FLOYD FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HOWARD HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH MITCHELL POCAHONTAS SAC WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT MNC039-043-045-047-049-099-109-115-131-147-157-161-169-290040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE MOWER OLMSTED PINE RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WINONA Read more

WW 181 TORNADO IA MN WI 282025Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Central and Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over western Minnesota will track northeastward across the watch area through the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Strong tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles north northeast of Minneapolis MN to 20 miles southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

All boat ramps on Lake Travis, except a public one, were closed due to the low water level as the lake was about 43% full, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority. Boaters were cautioned to beware of submerged objects like trees and rocks. The region was in a stage 2 drought response as the combined storage of both Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan were at 48%. Community Impact (Austin, Texas), April 24, 2025

MD 0587 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...far southeast NE...southwest into central IA...northwest MO...northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 282028Z - 282300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for a few tornadoes (a couple strong), large to very large hail (up to 3 inch diameter), and isolated damaging gusts through evening. A tornado watch will likely be needed for portions of the discussion area from central Iowa into northeast Kansas. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted along a dryline from eastern NE/northwest IA southward into northeast KS. An 18z RAOB from OAX indicated an EML around 700 mb, but only weak capping remained. Additional heating into the low/mid 80s F amid mid/upper 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km immediately downstream from the surface dryline is support strong instability with MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg noted in latest SPC Mesoanalysis and the 18z OAX RAOB. In addition to this this favorable thermodynamic environment, vertical shear is very favorable for supercell thunderstorms, as evident in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs becoming somewhat elongated above 2-3 km. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat weaker with southward extent into the MO Valley vicinity, and storm coverage is a bit uncertain, especially with southward extent. Timing of convective initiation is also uncertain, but seems most likely in the 22-00z time frame. Regardless, any storms developing in this environment will likely have robust updrafts and become intense, posing a risk for very large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. A tornado watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38269539 38139646 38329715 38529730 39859664 40239643 40809631 41419618 41989598 42139573 42249507 42249396 42229357 42119323 41839294 41459282 40929282 40489283 39839318 39159389 38269539 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0588 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into western/central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 282033Z - 282300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as storms are expected to develop along the dryline in the next 2-3 hours. All severe hazards will be possible. The tornado threat will steadily increase from late afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Signs of mid-level ascent have been evident across the southern Plains with visible satellite showing increasing amounts of mid/high-level clouds moving in from the southwest. As a shortwave perturbation lifts northeastward this afternoon/evening, this ascent and additional surface heating should erode capping along/near the dryline. A high-based storm has already formed northeast of Fort Stockton in the last hour. Additional storms are expected to develop later this afternoon, perhaps within the next 2-3 hours. The environment will be quite favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Very steep mid-level lapse rates were observed within the High Plains region on this mornings soundings. Large to potentially giant hail will be possible along with severe winds. Tornadoes will also be possible, particularly from southwest Oklahoma into the Texas Rolling Plains where dewpoints have remained in the upper 60s/low 70s F. The tornado threat will steadily increase with time as 850 mb winds increase east of the dryline from late afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out within this more favorable mesoscale zone. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34040023 35719959 36229909 36769846 36809782 36069709 35409708 34339724 33289797 32219946 32199957 31330088 31160179 31200232 31550250 32450181 34040023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more