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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some strong-tornado potential. ...Upper Midwest... Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential. Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward through the evening. Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before weakening later tonight. ...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity... A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening, with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the evening. ...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO... Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening. There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this area. Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK, south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms that can remain surface based. ..Dean.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some strong-tornado potential. ...Upper Midwest... Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential. Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward through the evening. Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before weakening later tonight. ...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity... A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening, with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the evening. ...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO... Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening. There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this area. Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK, south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms that can remain surface based. ..Dean.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some strong-tornado potential. ...Upper Midwest... Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential. Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward through the evening. Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before weakening later tonight. ...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity... A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening, with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the evening. ...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO... Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening. There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this area. Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK, south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms that can remain surface based. ..Dean.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some strong-tornado potential. ...Upper Midwest... Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential. Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward through the evening. Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before weakening later tonight. ...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity... A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening, with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the evening. ...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO... Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening. There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this area. Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK, south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms that can remain surface based. ..Dean.. 04/29/2025 Read more

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0185 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0590 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 182... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 182... Valid 282303Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues. SUMMARY...Initial supercells will pose mainly a risk of very large hail and locally severe wind gusts. The tornado risk will increase into the evening as the low-level jet strengthens (00-01Z time frame). DISCUSSION...Initial discrete supercell has developed immediately south of the Red River in western North TX, where convergence is maximized near the dryline amid an uncapped air mass (per 21Z special NSSL sounding from Quanah, TX). Strong surface-based inability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE), driven by a warm/moist boundary layer beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates, will favor continued rapid updraft intensification. Around 50 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the low-level convergence will support discrete/semi-discrete supercells. The initial hodograph (sampled by FDR VWP) depicts weak winds in the 1-2-km AGL layer, despite favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. This should initially favor some splitting supercells with a risk of very large hail. However, as the low-level jet rapidly increases, storms should intensify into dominant right-movers with an increasing supercell tornado risk. Current indications are that this evolution will occur in the 00-01Z time frame. The strong buoyancy, discrete/ semi-discrete mode, and increasing streamwise vorticity (around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH), will support a strong/intense tornado threat. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34099985 34499972 34979935 35139892 35119860 34949830 34619826 33899867 33669906 33649952 33809982 34099985 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0591 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 181... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...western/central Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 181... Valid 282306Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 181 continues. SUMMARY...Organized severe thunderstorms will spread across southeast Minnesota into western/central Wisconsin later this evening. Tornado threat continues, but damaging winds may also become more common. DISCUSSION...Northeast-southwest band of thunderstorms, roughly 175 mi in length, has developed across southeast MN into northern IA. A few supercells are embedded along this corridor, but some propensity for an upward-evolving linear MCS may be under way. Latest radar trends suggest this developing MCS should track across much of southeast MN into western WI later this evening and a new tornado watch will likely be warranted downstream as this transpires. ..Darrow.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44649331 45748993 44788880 43529051 43089412 44649331 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0182 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 182 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592 ..WEINMAN..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 182 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-019-027-031-033-039-049-051-055-057-065-067-073- 075-081-083-085-087-099-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-149- 290140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-059-077-081-101-125-151-155-173-197-207-227-235-237- 253-263-269-275-335-337-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-290140- TX Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 180 TORNADO IA MN SD 281730Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FRM TO 10 E MKT TO 10 NE MSP TO 50 SSW DLH. ..SPC..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC023-025-033-037-067-069-079-081-083-089-091-109-131-151-161- 187-189-195-197-290040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW FLOYD FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HOWARD HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH MITCHELL POCAHONTAS SAC WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT MNC039-043-045-047-049-099-109-115-131-147-157-161-169-290040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE MOWER OLMSTED PINE RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WINONA Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-015-027-029-039-049-053-071-073-077-121-129-137- 145-153-159-169-173-175-181-290040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK RINGGOLD STORY TAYLOR UNION WARREN KSC005-013-041-043-061-085-087-117-127-131-149-161-177-197- 290040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN DICKINSON DONIPHAN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-290040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC003-027-043-051-107-139-173-179-290040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON KNOX PIERCE THURSTON WAYNE SDC009-027-067-083-125-127-135-290040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0590 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 182... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 182... Valid 282303Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues. SUMMARY...Initial supercells will pose mainly a risk of very large hail and locally severe wind gusts. The tornado risk will increase into the evening as the low-level jet strengthens (00-01Z time frame). DISCUSSION...Initial discrete supercell has developed immediately south of the Red River in western North TX, where convergence is maximized near the dryline amid an uncapped air mass (per 21Z special NSSL sounding from Quanah, TX). Strong surface-based inability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE), driven by a warm/moist boundary layer beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates, will favor continued rapid updraft intensification. Around 50 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the low-level convergence will support discrete/semi-discrete supercells. The initial hodograph (sampled by FDR VWP) depicts weak winds in the 1-2-km AGL layer, despite favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. This should initially favor some splitting supercells with a risk of very large hail. However, as the low-level jet rapidly increases, storms should intensify into dominant right-movers with an increasing supercell tornado risk. Current indications are that this evolution will occur in the 00-01Z time frame. The strong buoyancy, discrete/ semi-discrete mode, and increasing streamwise vorticity (around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH), will support a strong/intense tornado threat. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34099985 34499972 34979935 35139892 35119860 34949830 34619826 33899867 33669906 33649952 33809982 34099985 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0591 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 181... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...western/central Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 181... Valid 282306Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 181 continues. SUMMARY...Organized severe thunderstorms will spread across southeast Minnesota into western/central Wisconsin later this evening. Tornado threat continues, but damaging winds may also become more common. DISCUSSION...Northeast-southwest band of thunderstorms, roughly 175 mi in length, has developed across southeast MN into northern IA. A few supercells are embedded along this corridor, but some propensity for an upward-evolving linear MCS may be under way. Latest radar trends suggest this developing MCS should track across much of southeast MN into western WI later this evening and a new tornado watch will likely be warranted downstream as this transpires. ..Darrow.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44649331 45748993 44788880 43529051 43089412 44649331 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska...southeast South Dakota...northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282229Z - 290000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. Some consideration is being given to a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Synoptic front is surging southeast across southeast South Dakota early this evening. A pre-frontal confluence zone is contributing to a corridor of high-based cumulus from central NE into extreme northwest IA. Lightning is now being observed with frontal convection west-north of ONL, and this activity is expected to gradually intensify over the next few hours as it propagates downstream along a zone of modest instability. Strong deep-layer shear suggests some supercell potential, and hail will likely be the primary concern, though steep boundary-layer lapse rates do favor gusty winds. If this activity continues to increase in coverage/intensity a severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42919834 43359612 41969584 41709911 42919834 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more