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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

MD 0596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Texas South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290433Z - 290530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may be noted with developing thunderstorms. The need for a severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Southeasterly low-level flow is increasing across west TX late this evening. Latest VWP data from MAF supports this with 50kt 1km flow and strong 0-3km SRH. Latest diagnostic data suggests boundary-layer moisture has surged back into the TX South Plains and a sharp moisture demarcation appears to be partly responsible for recent uptick in convection from near INK to Lynn County. Hail is noted along this line of storms which should gradually spread/develop northeast as LLJ is expected to remain focused into this region. Given the linear nature of this convection, current thinking is hail should remain somewhat marginal. Even so, isolated hail could exceed severe levels. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32430316 34450069 33889975 32740133 31860310 32430316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ALO TO 40 SE CWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 ..GLEASON..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-191-290540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE WINNESHIEK WIC001-023-057-081-103-123-137-290540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD JUNEAU MONROE RICHLAND VERNON WAUSHARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ALO TO 40 SE CWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 ..GLEASON..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-191-290540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE WINNESHIEK WIC001-023-057-081-103-123-137-290540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD JUNEAU MONROE RICHLAND VERNON WAUSHARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ALO TO 40 SE CWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 ..GLEASON..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-191-290540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE WINNESHIEK WIC001-023-057-081-103-123-137-290540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD JUNEAU MONROE RICHLAND VERNON WAUSHARA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 185 TORNADO IA MN WI 290030Z - 290700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Northeast Iowa Extreme Southeast Minnesota Western and Northern Wisconsin * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 730 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will continue to move quickly east-northeastward this evening and into the early overnight hours. A few tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging should be the main threats with this activity, but some large hail may also occur with any embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Wausau WI to 45 miles south of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183...WW 184... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0595 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 185... FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Wisconsin...southern U.P. of Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 185... Valid 290335Z - 290500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe convection will spread across northeast Wisconsin into the southern portions of the U.P. of Michigan. New watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...A long-lived elongated MCS is progressing east-northeast across WI. Much of this activity has struggled to generate more than isolated damaging winds and hail, though one notable supercell is tracking along this corridor over Langlade/Menominee County. Latest VWP data from GRB exhibits intense 0-3km SRH as a strong LLJ is focused across IA into this portion of the upper Great Lakes. While some tornado risk continues, especially with embedded supercells, the primary concern going forward appears to be wind/hail. Latest radar data supports a strengthening low-level warm advection regime as numerous elevated storms extend across the southern U.P. of MI. At this time a new watch is not anticipated downstream across the U.P., but some risk for hail may be noted, especially over Menominee County MI. ..Darrow.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45328916 46058693 45058671 44478899 45328916 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0594 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 182... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 182... Valid 290155Z - 290300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell tornado potential is likely peaking over the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...After several storm mergers into a cluster of supercells over southwest OK -- to include a left-mover that produced 3-inch hail, the latest radar data has shown signs that right-movers are attempting to become dominant. This is in response to the strengthening low-level jet and related enlargement of clockwise-curved hodograph sampled by the FDR VWP (around 270 m2/s2 0-500m SRH). While uncertainty remains in the overall tornado risk, given the continued messy mode, recent trends and environmental data suggest that the right movers could mature and pose an increased tornado risk over the next hour or two. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34749962 35029950 35199863 35159822 34719805 34539820 34429887 34429947 34749962 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more