Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with additional development expected along/ahead of the front this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to gradually sag south with time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025 Read more