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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ADM TO 20 SSW CQB TO 20 NNE OKC TO 25 SE END TO 20 SW PNC TO 5 SSW PNC TO 25 NE PNC TO 20 N BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 15 N CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-125-133-291340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC011-097-119-145-291340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ADM TO 20 SSW CQB TO 20 NNE OKC TO 25 SE END TO 20 SW PNC TO 5 SSW PNC TO 25 NE PNC TO 20 N BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 15 N CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-125-133-291340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC011-097-119-145-291340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ADM TO 20 SSW CQB TO 20 NNE OKC TO 25 SE END TO 20 SW PNC TO 5 SSW PNC TO 25 NE PNC TO 20 N BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 15 N CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-125-133-291340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC011-097-119-145-291340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ADM TO 20 SSW CQB TO 20 NNE OKC TO 25 SE END TO 20 SW PNC TO 5 SSW PNC TO 25 NE PNC TO 20 N BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 15 N CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-125-133-291340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC011-097-119-145-291340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 186 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK TX 290735Z - 291500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Arkansas South-Central/Southeast Kansas Far Southwest Missouri Northern Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday morning from 235 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northwest OK and the far northeast TX Panhandle in the vicinity of a cold front progressing southward. This initial activity could pose a threat for large hail. This development will likely grow upscale with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as it moves eastward across northern OK and south-central/southeast KS into far southwest MO and far northwest AR. Some hail is possible within the stronger cells across these areas as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 20 miles east northeast of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Wisconsin Northern Iowa Far Southeast Minnesota * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 04/29/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Wisconsin Northern Iowa Far Southeast Minnesota * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 04/29/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Wisconsin Northern Iowa Far Southeast Minnesota * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 04/29/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Wisconsin Northern Iowa Far Southeast Minnesota * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 04/29/2025 Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CSM TO 55 N CSM TO 20 SW AVK TO 10 ENE AVK TO 30 NNW PNC TO 30 WNW CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-291240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-097-119-145-291240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-291040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-191-205-291040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER WILSON MOC011-097-119-145-291040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON Read more

MD 0598 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290806Z - 291000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gust may occur from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The situation may not require a watch. DISCUSSION...An MCS is rapidly moving eastward into northwest TX, with several gusts over 50 kt recently. Radar indicates the leading edge of this convective line remains strong and well balanced. Given a moist and unstable air mass downstream, it is expected this system will persist for a few more hours. However, longevity may also depend on capping. At the very least, isolated severe gusts may occur. Trends will continue to be monitored. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34309996 34709984 34819944 34939822 34759773 34489756 34019759 33569772 33399840 33180004 33270030 34309996 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into the northeastern US. As this front shifts southward and a surface high builds in across the central US D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday, moisture will be scoured out of much of the CONUS limiting the severe threat. As the surface high shifts eastward across the Midwest, slow moisture return will begin across the southern Plains late D6/Sunday into D7/Monday. During this period, the next upper-level wave will be deepening across the western US. As this system evolves, severe potential may return late in the period across portions of the southern and central Plains. Read more