Aggregator

MD 0600 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MO/IL INTO NORTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southern MO/IL into northern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291330Z - 291500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will persist with a bowing cluster of storms moving across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moving into southwest MO/far northwest AR has produced wind damage and severe gusts recently at Miami, OK near the OK/MO border. The KINX VWP suggests rear-inflow near 40 kt behind this bowing cluster that is quickly moving east at around 50-60 kt. Downstream across southern MO/northern AR, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F with temperatures already starting out in the low 70s this morning. This is supporting modest instability, which may increase some through the remainder of the morning/early afternoon given areas of clear to scattered cloudiness ahead of the system. While the bulk of this convection may remain over southern MO, some forecast guidance suggests southward development on the southwest flank may occur over northern AR. Eventually, convection will move into southern IL later this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed soon across portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37829405 38139104 38348907 36998863 36088949 35839066 35409214 35699448 36229491 36819486 37279475 37829405 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0599 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...central into northeast Oklahoma...far southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 291052Z - 291345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts remain possible from central into northeast Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...The leading edge of a small MCS which moved out of northwest TX and pivoted into southwest OK continues to produce measured severe gusts, most recently in Grady County as of 1030Z. North of this area, storms have gradually increased along the cold front extending from southeast KS into north-central OK. This line of storms is also beginning to produce outflow as well. An unstable air mass remains ahead of both convective systems, and it appears these storms will merge from central into northeast OK. Damaging gusts will remain the most likely threat, although hail of 1.00+" is likely in the stronger storm cores. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36179771 36679683 37129590 37279534 37379454 37129419 36239417 34799667 34669735 35089757 35359796 35729808 35979802 36179771 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the thunderstorms that developed along the front over northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX, but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher tornado probabilities. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025 Read more