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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA. Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region. Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible. Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 29 07:20:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...far southern Kansas...much of northern Oklahoma...and small portions of the Texas Panhandle and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290550Z - 290745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage along or possibly just ahead of the cold front as it pushes south from Kansas into Oklahoma and surrounding states. Locally damaging gusts and sporadic large hail will be possible. DISCUSSION...A cold front currently stretches from the OK Panhandle across south-central KS and into northwest MO, with elevated convection already forming in the HUT to P28 corridor. South of the front, a moist and unstable air mass remains in places with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Winds aloft will remain nearly parallel to the cold front, and even the low-level jet will veer with time. As such, any initial cellular activity (producing hail) may tend to merge into an MCS. Such an MCS would move eastward with the mean wind, possibly producing damaging winds across northern OK and vicinity. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37129404 36699426 36459465 35939569 35749742 35509882 35479990 35620023 36020035 36380019 36859971 37139910 37519811 37829734 37979590 37899471 37589409 37129404 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more