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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE TLH TO 20 S CEW. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-102040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC039-059-063-077-131-133-102040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-102040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE TLH TO 20 S CEW. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-102040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC039-059-063-077-131-133-102040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-102040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more

WW 244 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 101510Z - 102200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast Alabama Central Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1010 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the central FL Peninsula and adjacent areas this afternoon. The environmental conditions are favorable for strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Albany GA to 30 miles south of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more