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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 ..MOSIER..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-101940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-039-045-059-063-131-133-101940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-101940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-039-045-059-063-131-133-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-101740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-039-045-059-063-131-133-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-101740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more