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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop on Sunday across central Nebraska north into southeast North Dakota and western Minnesota. Here afternoon winds will be in excess of 20-25 mph and relative humidity should fall into the mid-to-upper teens for most of the afternoon. Fuels continue to dry and should support rapid fire spread should a fire start. Surrounding the critical, the elevated area was expanded northeast to account for all of northern Minnesota. Here, winds should not be as strong as to the southwest, but should be sufficient to support fire spread. Limiting factors will be relative humidity (increasingly higher as you approach Lake Michigan) and higher fuel moisture as to areas south and west. That said, if a fire takes hold, it could pose a concern for rapid spread. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more