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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more