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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf. The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for this scenario. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. Read more