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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

MD 0762 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...parts of south-central GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102347Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms, including a few more organized supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two for a few hours this evening. A greater severe risk requiring WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed a cluster of somewhat better organized convection has evolved near a partially modified stationary front over parts of south-central GA. Downstream of the broad upper low over the northern Gulf, weak ascent and inland moisture advection will likely continue to support strong to severe storms in this zone this evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, are supporting around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst 30+ kt of mid-level flow from the KJGX VAD. With backed low-level winds long the boundary, shear is favorable for storm organization into clusters and supercell structures. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given relatively saturated low-levels and modest mid-level lapse rates. However, hail will be possible with the deeper storms. A tornado or two may also occur with enhanced SRH and backed-low level flow, especially near and along the frontal zone. While some storm organization is likely for a few hours this evening, the lack of broader ascent/destabilization suggests the threat will be confined both temporarily and spatial near the front. A WW is not currently anticipated, though conditions will continue to be monitored for changes. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31908456 32518405 32958281 32778229 32418209 32048229 31868267 31728339 31648407 31908456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 10 23:49:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0762 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...parts of south-central GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102347Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms, including a few more organized supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two for a few hours this evening. A greater severe risk requiring WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed a cluster of somewhat better organized convection has evolved near a partially modified stationary front over parts of south-central GA. Downstream of the broad upper low over the northern Gulf, weak ascent and inland moisture advection will likely continue to support strong to severe storms in this zone this evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, are supporting around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst 30+ kt of mid-level flow from the KJGX VAD. With backed low-level winds long the boundary, shear is favorable for storm organization into clusters and supercell structures. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given relatively saturated low-levels and modest mid-level lapse rates. However, hail will be possible with the deeper storms. A tornado or two may also occur with enhanced SRH and backed-low level flow, especially near and along the frontal zone. While some storm organization is likely for a few hours this evening, the lack of broader ascent/destabilization suggests the threat will be confined both temporarily and spatial near the front. A WW is not currently anticipated, though conditions will continue to be monitored for changes. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31908456 32518405 32958281 32778229 32418209 32048229 31868267 31728339 31648407 31908456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 10 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0761 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS OF IDAHO...AND SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0761 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...The Snake River Plains of Idaho...and southwestern and central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102026Z - 102230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts, possibly exceeding 70 mph, will be possible within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Snake River Plain and Rocky Mountains, into central MT. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed into the low 80s across MT this afternoon under the northern fringe of an upper-level ridge. The latest visible satellite and radar imagery shows a small cluster of moist convection becoming more widespread over the Rocky Mountains near the MT/ID border via orographic ascent within a low to mid-level theta-e ridge axis. Additional development was also noted near the Snake River Plain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer are in place here, yielding DCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Evaporative cooling under high cloud bases in this environment will support isolated severe wind gusts through late this afternoon as thunderstorms become more numerous across the region. However, it's currently unclear how widespread the severe potential will be. A weather watch remains possible, but does not appear likely at this time given the isolated threat. The potential for severe wind gusts will shift northeastward later this evening into more of central MT, with storm interactions/mergers possible. ..Barnes/Mosier.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 42881450 43421440 44931425 45051423 45531417 46021409 46391395 46631361 46781333 46871310 46921292 47101251 47561102 47441019 47160970 46750944 46480951 46100984 45741046 45431095 44771125 44261131 43441155 42711203 42471251 42341298 42401371 42581432 42881450 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 0759 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...interior Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101810Z - 102045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely spread north from central into northern Florida. Sporadic hail and locally strong downbursts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Heating of a moist air mass has led to moderate instability, with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms that initiated close to the sea breeze have rapidly moves northward with primary cluster east of Tampa. Although shear is not very strong, favorable time of day along with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates should continue to support strong updrafts, and localized hail and severe gusts may occur. This activity may reach northern FL later this afternoon, where outflow has temporarily stabilized the air mass. In addition, a large area of storms is currently located about 50 miles west of Tampa, and continues to push east with indications of large-scale outflow, which may affect the west coast with wind later today. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27438112 26828164 26768224 27298265 27928287 28568271 28968263 29288252 29528227 29638191 29598153 29408134 29198125 28618116 27728108 27438112 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0760 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 244... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0760 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 244... Valid 101828Z - 102030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 244 continues. SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms remain possible especially near the warm front over southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. DISCUSSION...A long-tracked supercell that moved out of the FL Panhandle is now situated along the AL/GA border east of the EOX radar, and has morphed into a supercell-MCS hybrid. This system is along the stationary front, with northern sections of the complex indicating broad but substantial rotation. At the very least, damaging wind is likely with this system, but a brief tornado could still materialize. Although areas of heating have occurred along the main boundary, surface observations show little northward movement, and in fact, some observations such as KCSG have cooled with the boundary moving back to the southwest. As such, it is possible additional severe potential will be limited north of the existing watch, except for perhaps a few nearby counties. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 31398397 31118468 30918522 31008562 31428574 31758570 32188535 32348451 32528364 32578321 32308293 31938296 31668321 31398397 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z The high-over-low block across the eastern United States should break down early next week as a trough moves through the West and helps open the closed low across the northern Gulf states. Before the Rex block breaks down on Monday, another hot, dry day across the northern Plains will result in elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions. A corridor of winds greater than 20 mph is possible from north-central Nebraska northward into western Minnesota. However, relative humidity values on Monday (Day-3) should be higher than the previous day, which may temper the overall large-scale fire concerns. That said, fuels should be slightly drier than the day before owing to continued drying. Balancing this, this forecast opts to expand the 40% area and hold off on introducing critical highlights. Across the Southwest, a tightening midlevel height gradient between the approaching/developing trough and the subtropical ridge will result in increasing midlevel flow across the Southwest. As this midlevel flows mixes to the surface, afternoon wind speeds and relative-humidity values will fall to critical levels (greater than 20 mph and less than 15-percent respectively). However, fuels across much of the Southwest have not begun to cure/are still relatively moist. The exception to this is across southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. A 40% probability of critical fire weather conditions remains across this area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5). ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more