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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more