Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest... An accelerating subtropical jet across the Desert Southwest atop a deep, dry boundary layer will support breezy afternoon winds across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where fuels remain relatively dry amid ongoing severe/extreme drought. Expanded area of elevated fire weather conditions to account for higher expected winds across south-central Arizona for Monday. ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... A broad area of dry, southerly return flow amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile will support elevated fire weather conditions across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Record setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely from a corridor of enhanced south winds from north-central Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with overlapping low relative humidity so continued uncertainty precluded adding Critical highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The partially blocked upper-air pattern over the US will begin to breakdown early in the new week as a trough deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogensisis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Great Plains and Southwest Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Strong southerly low-level flow will continue Monday as the upper trough ejects eastward and the surface low deepens over MT and the western Dakotas. Surface winds of 25-30 mph are again expected across much of MT, the Dakotas and into parts of NE/MN/IA. However, RH values should begin to increase as low-level moisture is advected northward and mid-level cloud cover reduces solar heating. While still relatively dry below 30%, RH values do not appear critical. This will favor widespread elevated and pockets of locally critical conditions Monday afternoon. ...Southwest... As the troughing over the west gradually deepens, strong mid-level flow will begin to move eastward over the southern Rockies and Southwest. Westerly downslope flow is likely across parts of eastern AZ and western NM Monday. With gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 15%, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more