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WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0246 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 246 SEVERE TSTM MT ND WY 112225Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western North Dakota North Central Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Montana will track across the watch area through the evening. Conditions are favorable for organized, high-based convection capable of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 120 miles west southwest of Miles City MT to 35 miles east northeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 245... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 11 21:53:04 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A more progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the coming week. The upper-level trough across the western U.S. on Day 3/Tuesday will translate eastward across the CONUS through Day 7/Saturday. Another potential trough enters the western U.S. by early next week (Day 8/Sunday). A residual dry boundary layer along with enhanced southerly winds ahead of a lee trough should allow for the fire weather threat to continue for the far Northern Great Plains/Upper-Midwest. Persistent above normal temperatures should maintain dry fuels through Day 3/Tuesday but extent of moisture return could keep relative humidity from broadly falling to 20 percent in the Upper-Midwest so withheld Critical probabilities out at this time. A surface low and associated cold front moving through Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday will provide relief in the form of cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation across much of the Upper-Midwest. An incoming upper trough and attendant mid-level jet over a well-mixed boundary layer and dry fuels will support Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Southwest for Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday. Confidence has increased given latest model guidance for overlapping winds of 20-25 mph and localized single digit relative humidity across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability was introduced. Yet another trough is progged to come into the western U.S. early next week (Day 8/Sunday). With dry conditions continuing through the week, fuelscapes that have received recent rainfall will have undergone several days of drying/curing leading up to the next trough. Long term ensemble cluster analysis does present some uncertainty in timing and strength of trough so Critical probabilities were not included across portions of the Southwest. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more