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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

MD 0771 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0771 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Areas affected...northwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246... Valid 120448Z - 120545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch 246 will expire at 05Z. DISCUSSION...The severe threat has mostly ended across northwest North Dakota. Thunderstorms continue across the region, but instability continues to decrease as the boundary layer cools. A few strong to occasionally severe wind gusts have been reported in the last 1 to 2 hours. An isolated strong to severe gust is possible past 05Z, but any continued threat should be brief and isolated as the overall threat continues to wane amid decreasing instability. Severe thunderstorm watch 246 will be allowed to expire at 05Z. ..Bentley.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... LAT...LON 47630387 48420404 48680387 48810310 48860213 48470065 47720028 46800027 46610130 47290286 47630387 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

Buda, Kyle and other communities in the Barton Springs-Edwards Aquifer Conservation District remained at stage 3 since October 2024. The level of the Lovelady Monitor Well in Austin was alarmingly close to Stage IV Exception Drought as the region has been in drought for 34 consecutive months for both the Edwards and Trinity aquifers, which were very low. Groundwater levels were decreasing and spring flows were limited at Barton Springs and elsewhere. KXAN (Austin, Texas), May 12, 2025 Buda entered Stage 3 water restrictions on Nov. 4 as several water supplies were stressed, warranting tighter water restrictions. Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer and Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority were both observing Stage 3 drought restrictions. MySA (San Antonio, Texas), Nov 4, 2024

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW 2WX TO BHK TO 5 SW GDV TO 35 NW GDV. ..BENTLEY..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-007-011-025-033-037-041-053-057-059-065-085-087-089- 120540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCKENZIE MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 246 SEVERE TSTM MT ND WY 112225Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western North Dakota North Central Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Montana will track across the watch area through the evening. Conditions are favorable for organized, high-based convection capable of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 120 miles west southwest of Miles City MT to 35 miles east northeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 245... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... FOR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Areas affected...eastern Montana into western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246... Valid 120123Z - 120300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind threat continues across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across eastern Montana with echo tops over 40kft. Thus far, this cluster has moved through a data sparse region and no severe wind gusts have been reported. However, given the intensity of the convection and other storms in the region reporting severe wind gusts with less intense signatures, expect it may be currently producing severe wind gusts. As it moves north/east, expect the severe wind threat to continue, given the hot, well-mixed environment downstream. The eastern extent of this threat remains questionable as nocturnal cooling should weaken instability and thus the convection this evening. However, the HRRR suggests a strong enough cold pool may develop to maintain some severe threat through 05Z. If this occurs, the threat could eventually move east of watch 246. If this occurs a local extension may eventually be necessary. Trends will be monitored for this potential through the evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46310557 47340551 47930406 47940246 46930215 46040204 45560389 45500523 46310557 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GCC TO 10 NE 4BQ TO 20 S MLS TO 30 NNW MLS TO 50 NNW MLS TO 55 S GGW. ..BENTLEY..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GCC TO 10 NE 4BQ TO 20 S MLS TO 30 NNW MLS TO 50 NNW MLS TO 55 S GGW. ..BENTLEY..05/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning. ...Northern Great Plains/Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe wind threat expected to cease towards late evening. Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is possible within the post-frontal convective regime. ...Southeast... Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA. This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere, localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards the GA/SC coast through the overnight. ..Grams.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning. ...Northern Great Plains/Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe wind threat expected to cease towards late evening. Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is possible within the post-frontal convective regime. ...Southeast... Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA. This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere, localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards the GA/SC coast through the overnight. ..Grams.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning. ...Northern Great Plains/Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe wind threat expected to cease towards late evening. Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is possible within the post-frontal convective regime. ...Southeast... Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA. This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere, localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards the GA/SC coast through the overnight. ..Grams.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening but will subside tonight. A low-probability wind/tornado threat remains apparent across central/south Alabama to the Florida Panhandle into Monday morning. ...Northern Great Plains/Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for severe gusts appears to be from eastern MT through western ND where surface temperature-dew point spreads of 45-55 F remain common. This activity will diminish after sunset, with the severe wind threat expected to cease towards late evening. Farther west in the ID Panhandle to northwest MT, a supercell or two remains possible the northern Rockies, within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet. Meager buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor, but small to marginally severe hail is possible within the post-frontal convective regime. ...Southeast... Overall severe potential has been limited today, despite extensive convective activity. Will continue a low-probability severe area ahead of an arc of slow-moving storms over southwest AL. Bulk of guidance suggests slight strengthening of mid-level southerlies will occur across the FL Panhandle and the southeast AL/southwest GA vicinity tonight, downstream of the nearly-stationary low over LA. This may foster maintenance of transient supercell structures atop surface east-southeasterly winds. Weak buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates will limit overall tornado/wind potential. Elsewhere, localized strong gusts may still occur from the FL Peninsula towards the GA/SC coast through the overnight. ..Grams.. 05/12/2025 Read more