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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms remains limited across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A gradual amplification of the upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is expected over the next 48 hours across the western CONUS. This will maintain a southwesterly flow regime across the central and northern Rockies, which will promote steady lee troughing and modest moisture return across the Plains through Tuesday night. The eastward advection of a stout EML will result in strong capping across the southern Plains where moisture return will be the greatest. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough late afternoon/early evening, and may produce strong downdrafts given deep boundary-layer mixing, but the overall convective signal remains too limited to warrant risk probabilities. Additional elevated convection is possible early Wednesday morning across the Dakotas as a cold front begins to push east across the northern Plains. Across the East, the upper low currently over the lower MS River Valley is expected to gradually de-amplify and lift to the northeast. Rich low-level moisture already in place ahead of this feature, coupled with daytime heating and limited inhibition, will maintain scattered thunderstorm chances for most areas east of the MS River to the central Appalachians. Loosely organized convection is possible across eastern NC Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough where low-level winds may be sufficiently backed to elongate hodographs. However, disparity in recent guidance regarding the overall convective environment and convective coverage in the wake of widespread early-morning precipitation precludes highlights. Similarly, somewhat organized convection may materialize across parts of MS/western AL Tuesday evening at the eastern periphery of the EML where capping will be weaker. While hodographs will be favorable for organized convection, weak forcing for ascent should limit the probability for sustained, robust storms. ..Moore.. 05/12/2025 Read more

MD 0771 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0771 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Areas affected...northwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246... Valid 120448Z - 120545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch 246 will expire at 05Z. DISCUSSION...The severe threat has mostly ended across northwest North Dakota. Thunderstorms continue across the region, but instability continues to decrease as the boundary layer cools. A few strong to occasionally severe wind gusts have been reported in the last 1 to 2 hours. An isolated strong to severe gust is possible past 05Z, but any continued threat should be brief and isolated as the overall threat continues to wane amid decreasing instability. Severe thunderstorm watch 246 will be allowed to expire at 05Z. ..Bentley.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... LAT...LON 47630387 48420404 48680387 48810310 48860213 48470065 47720028 46800027 46610130 47290286 47630387 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...Southeast... The vertically stacked mid/upper low that has been nearly stationary over the Sabine Valley will finally pivot northeastward towards western TN through early Tuesday. A jetlet of strong mid-level southerlies over the northeast Gulf and FL Panhandle will dampen somewhat as it becomes centered on north FL to southeast GA vicinity this afternoon. More probable diurnal thunderstorm development is anticipated from the left-exit region of this jetlet westward towards the cold-core of the stacked low. Deep-layer vertical shear will relax with westward extent, yielding more of a pulse strong-storm environment from Middle TN to western AL and MS. Despite the meridional deep-layer wind profile, effective values should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation centered on eastern AL and GA into north FL. Pockets of modest buoyancy should support a mix of small to marginally severe hail and strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. Along the eastern periphery of this activity, a tornado or two is possible where there remains some overlap with the western belt of enhanced low-level flow, shifting east along the South Atlantic Coast. Farther south, a more nebulous convective scenario is anticipated amid extensive ongoing convection across the FL Peninsula and Keys. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of destabilization, as adequate boundary-layer heating will be required amid poor mid-level lapse rates near 5 C/km. Some guidance suggests south FL has the best chance at recovery by afternoon. As such, have opted to maintain the level 1-MRGL risk through the entire region, mainly driven by wind. ...Northeast MT to northwest ND... Another day of rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles is expected across this portion of the Upper MO Valley. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern MT should be substantially less than in recent days, amid deep-layer southwesterly wind profiles. Some guidance suggests very isolated storms could develop as low-level convergence increases in the early evening. Should this occur, potential will exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/12/2025 Read more