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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The U.S. Navy recently paused live bomb testing due to severe drought conditions across the region but was resuming the testing. There have been several wildfires in the Ocala National Forest sparked by lightning strikes in recent weeks. Ocala News (Fla.), May 12, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ...Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ...Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ...Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ...Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ...Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough over the East dissipates further. At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower MO to middle MS Valleys. Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops, but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in advection of drier air. ...Northern and central Plains... Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability, with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the Dakotas into NE. Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind and hail. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more

Drought and an uptick in fire activity prompted fire agencies representing southern Arizona to enact stage 2 fire restrictions that began on Monday, May 12. The Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management, Bureau of Land Management Gila District, Coronado National Forest, Saguaro National Park, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Casa Grande Ruins National Monument, Coronado National Memorial, Chiricahua National Monument, Fort Bowie National Historic Site, Tumacácori National Historic Park, Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, and Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge had campfire and smoking restrictions. A burn moratorium was also in effect on the Gila River Indian Community. The San Carlos Apache Tribe has been in Stage 2 restrictions since March. KOLD News 13 (Tucson, Ariz.), May 12, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...Northern Plains and Midwest... An approaching upper-level trough and advancing cold front will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern Montana late this afternoon into the evening hours. Forward motion of precipitation cores will limit rainfall to likely less than one tenth of an inch. However, a cooler air mass and higher humidity will infiltrate into eastern Montana tonight, with additional widespread rainfall expected Tuesday across the area. Before convection commences late this afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer and dry downslope flow ahead of the upper-trough should support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the area, necessitating and westward expansion of Elevated highlights. ...Southwest... Latest fuels guidance indicates increased fire spread potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. With a broad area of stronger winds and dry conditions across the region, expanded Elevated highlights northward to encompass drier fuels along the Arizona and New Mexico border. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the blocking within the upper-air pattern begins to breakdown a trough will deepens over the western US. Strong mid-level flow will gradually move into the Plains, as upper ridging moves eastward. Strong lee troughing/cyclogenesis will support gusty south/westerly winds over the High Plains. Fire-weather conditions are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Southwest this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... Another day of strong southerly winds are likely across the northern Plains and Midwest as ascent from the western US trough overspreads the region. A lee cyclone will support southerly gusts of 20-30 mph over a A broad area amid fuels with ERC values above the 97th percentile. While afternoon RH minimums may not be as low as prior days, record-setting temperatures in the lower to upper 90s are again expected across the region supporting dry surface conditions with RH below 30%. This will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns given the state of drought and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... As the western US trough begins to eject, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest from southern AZ into NM. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph along with low RH below 15% will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels, that have supported recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, an upper low will proceed northward across the TN and OH Valleys, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge extending from the Northeast into eastern Canada. As this occurs, winds aloft will generally weaken from FL into the Mid Atlantic, but cool temperatures aloft will maintain thunderstorm chances over much of the East. Severe chances will be limited by poor lapse rates aloft in most areas. To the west, a deep upper trough will move eastward across the Great Basin, with a intense midlevel speed max moving from southern CA toward the Four Corners area. Moderate southwest flow aloft will exist over the central and northern Rockies, with increasing west/northwest flow aloft from NM into TX north of a Mexican upper ridge. Beneath the upper trough, cold air aloft will favor daytime thunderstorms from the Sierra into the northern Rockies, and into the evening across the western Dakotas. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2025 Read more