Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND IN NORTHEAST MT TO FAR NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas, and through the rest of this evening in northeast Montana to far northwest North Dakota. ...Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas... Potential for strong to severe storms will remain limited across the Southeast tonight. One area of low-probability tornado/wind threat that may persist is downstream of an arc of ongoing convection across eastern GA to upstate SC. While downstream instability is weak, enough of a gap exists between this arc and the persistent warm-conveyor rain swath across eastern NC. Adequate low to deep-layer shear should be maintained for transient weak rotation through 12Z Tuesday. This might support a brief tornado or localized wet microburst. These threats should tend to become more confined towards the SC to southern NC coastal plain overnight. ...Northeast MT and far northwest ND... High-based convection persists along and rearward of an undercutting Pacific cold front marching east into northeast MT. Despite meager MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z GGW sounding, 45-55 F surface temperature-dew points spreads ahead of the front will promote potential for a few gusts of 55-70 mph through late evening. ..Grams.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND IN NORTHEAST MT TO FAR NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas, and through the rest of this evening in northeast Montana to far northwest North Dakota. ...Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas... Potential for strong to severe storms will remain limited across the Southeast tonight. One area of low-probability tornado/wind threat that may persist is downstream of an arc of ongoing convection across eastern GA to upstate SC. While downstream instability is weak, enough of a gap exists between this arc and the persistent warm-conveyor rain swath across eastern NC. Adequate low to deep-layer shear should be maintained for transient weak rotation through 12Z Tuesday. This might support a brief tornado or localized wet microburst. These threats should tend to become more confined towards the SC to southern NC coastal plain overnight. ...Northeast MT and far northwest ND... High-based convection persists along and rearward of an undercutting Pacific cold front marching east into northeast MT. Despite meager MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z GGW sounding, 45-55 F surface temperature-dew points spreads ahead of the front will promote potential for a few gusts of 55-70 mph through late evening. ..Grams.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z An upper-level trough over the Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 6/Friday bringing dry and breezy conditions to portions of the Southwest, with needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The cutoff low across the Southeast will shift northeastward as an open wave, bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Overall pattern remains active with another upper-trough entering the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday) bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest. ...Upper-Midwest... A residual dry boundary layer along with pre-frontal winds of 15-20 mph could allow for period of elevated fire weather conditions across western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas. However, moist return flow from the Missouri Valley could keep relative humidity above critical thresholds before expected cold front and associated rainfall/cooler air mass moves in for the end of the Day 3/Wednesday period. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Modest to strong mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will be the primary contributor to 20-25 mph west-southwest surface winds across southern New Mexico on Day3/Wednesday. A 70 percent Critical probability area was added to far southern New Mexico with the increased forecast confidence from latest model guidance. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z An upper-level trough over the Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 6/Friday bringing dry and breezy conditions to portions of the Southwest, with needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The cutoff low across the Southeast will shift northeastward as an open wave, bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Overall pattern remains active with another upper-trough entering the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday) bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest. ...Upper-Midwest... A residual dry boundary layer along with pre-frontal winds of 15-20 mph could allow for period of elevated fire weather conditions across western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas. However, moist return flow from the Missouri Valley could keep relative humidity above critical thresholds before expected cold front and associated rainfall/cooler air mass moves in for the end of the Day 3/Wednesday period. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Modest to strong mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will be the primary contributor to 20-25 mph west-southwest surface winds across southern New Mexico on Day3/Wednesday. A 70 percent Critical probability area was added to far southern New Mexico with the increased forecast confidence from latest model guidance. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z An upper-level trough over the Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 6/Friday bringing dry and breezy conditions to portions of the Southwest, with needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The cutoff low across the Southeast will shift northeastward as an open wave, bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Overall pattern remains active with another upper-trough entering the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday) bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest. ...Upper-Midwest... A residual dry boundary layer along with pre-frontal winds of 15-20 mph could allow for period of elevated fire weather conditions across western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas. However, moist return flow from the Missouri Valley could keep relative humidity above critical thresholds before expected cold front and associated rainfall/cooler air mass moves in for the end of the Day 3/Wednesday period. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Modest to strong mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will be the primary contributor to 20-25 mph west-southwest surface winds across southern New Mexico on Day3/Wednesday. A 70 percent Critical probability area was added to far southern New Mexico with the increased forecast confidence from latest model guidance. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z An upper-level trough over the Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 6/Friday bringing dry and breezy conditions to portions of the Southwest, with needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The cutoff low across the Southeast will shift northeastward as an open wave, bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Overall pattern remains active with another upper-trough entering the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday) bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest. ...Upper-Midwest... A residual dry boundary layer along with pre-frontal winds of 15-20 mph could allow for period of elevated fire weather conditions across western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas. However, moist return flow from the Missouri Valley could keep relative humidity above critical thresholds before expected cold front and associated rainfall/cooler air mass moves in for the end of the Day 3/Wednesday period. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Modest to strong mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will be the primary contributor to 20-25 mph west-southwest surface winds across southern New Mexico on Day3/Wednesday. A 70 percent Critical probability area was added to far southern New Mexico with the increased forecast confidence from latest model guidance. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z An upper-level trough over the Intermountain West on Day 3/Wednesday will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 6/Friday bringing dry and breezy conditions to portions of the Southwest, with needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The cutoff low across the Southeast will shift northeastward as an open wave, bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Overall pattern remains active with another upper-trough entering the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday) bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest. ...Upper-Midwest... A residual dry boundary layer along with pre-frontal winds of 15-20 mph could allow for period of elevated fire weather conditions across western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas. However, moist return flow from the Missouri Valley could keep relative humidity above critical thresholds before expected cold front and associated rainfall/cooler air mass moves in for the end of the Day 3/Wednesday period. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Modest to strong mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will be the primary contributor to 20-25 mph west-southwest surface winds across southern New Mexico on Day3/Wednesday. A 70 percent Critical probability area was added to far southern New Mexico with the increased forecast confidence from latest model guidance. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 12 22:02:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 12 22:02:02 UTC 2025.

Drought conditions were intensifying quickly, according to a farmer near McCook, Nebraska. The dryness was affecting crop emergence. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 9, 2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Southeast... Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning. Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today, ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina. Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern FL where some heating is occurring. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Southeast... Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning. Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today, ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina. Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern FL where some heating is occurring. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Southeast... Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning. Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today, ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina. Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern FL where some heating is occurring. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Southeast... Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning. Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today, ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina. Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern FL where some heating is occurring. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Southeast... Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning. Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today, ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina. Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern FL where some heating is occurring. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds, and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Southeast... Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning. Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today, ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina. Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern FL where some heating is occurring. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest... Hot, dry and breezy conditions ahead of a surface trough and cold front will continue for Tuesday across portions of the Northern Plains. Fuels continue to dry after several days of well above normal temperatures with ERC values in the 90-97th percentile across the area. Critical highlights were added to much of the Red River Valley of the North for this persistent fire weather threat. ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough and accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer is still expected to bring gusty west-southwest winds to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, heightening fire spread potential. Slight adjustments to Elevated and Critical highlights were needed to account for additional available fuels. ..Williams.. 05/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the western U.S. will translate eastward across the Rockies with strong mid-level flow overspreading much of the Southwest. Lee troughing will encourage strong westerly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Southwest... The upper trough and attendant mid-level jet are forecast to intensify and aid in the development of stronger winds within a well-mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest. Westerly downslope flow of 20-30 mph amid RH values below 15% will support widespread dry and windy conditions across southeastern AZ into southern NM Tuesday. Several days of above-normal temperatures and poor humidity recoveries suggest additional drying of already receptive fuels is likely. Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across parts of the Southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Red River of the North... As the upper trough intensifies to the west, an elongated area of low pressure will deepen near the international border. Strong southerly winds are likely for another day east of the surface trough/low. Persistent above-normal temperatures should maintain low RH below 30% and dry fuels. With southerly gusts to 20 mph, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more