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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today and tonight across parts of North Carolina into the southern Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern Plains. ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/13/2025 Read more

At least 16 wildfires have burned across North Dakota, including several large fires in wooded areas and grasslands on the Turtle Mountain Reservation near the Canadian border. Dry and breezy conditions before the spring green-up haven’t helped as much of the state was at some level of drought. Three fires blackened about 6.5 square miles in the Turtle Mountain area. On the Fort Berthold Reservation, blazes charred at least 3.1 square miles. The Associated Press, May 6, 2025

The unusually dry conditions have led to hundreds of fires in Pasco County. The blazes were not easy to extinguish and needed to be monitored to make sure that they did not reignite. WFTS-TV ABC 28 Tampa Bay (Fla.), May 12, 2025

MD 0774 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC into southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131246Z - 131445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat may persist through the morning. DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning across eastern NC into southeast VA. Weak instability (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less) is limiting updraft intensity, with lightning primarily confined to somewhat deeper convection near the NC coast. However, to the east of the slow-moving midlevel cyclone centered over western TN/KY, rather strong low-level flow continues to be noted on the KMHX and KAKQ VWPs, supporting effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Small cells with occasional rotation have persisted from northeast NC into far southeast VA, and some localized threat for a brief tornado and wind damage could persist through the morning with these smaller cells. Farther south, an extensive convective cluster is ongoing off the NC coast, with some evidence of an MCV south of Morehead City. This cluster could spread northward toward the immediate coast and Outer Banks with time, with embedded cells potentially posing a threat of strong gusts and a brief tornado, especially where surface dewpoints remain near 70 F this morning. ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 34337728 35347780 37077776 37727730 37707663 37337571 36567549 35807518 35197530 34817576 34597642 34337728 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... The upper-level low centered near the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to lift east/northeast through tonight, as a notable shortwave trough rotates northeast across the Mid-Atlantic region. Generally weak surface-based instability (MLCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg) will exist across the coastal plain as a belt of stronger 850 mb flow lifts northeast across eastern sections of NC/VA. This will contribute to enlarged low-level hodograph structures and support the continued potential for transient areas of rotation and a few short-lived tornadoes associated with stronger convective elements. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 774 for details on short-term convective trends. Farther west into WV/western VA and NC, subtle large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching upper low will contribute to thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will tend to relax with westward extent, slightly more favorable mid-level lapse rates and 1000-locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will result in the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts and hail. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some hi-res guidance continues to suggest a supercell or two may develop to the west of the departing mid-level trough, where a corridor of differential boundary-layer heating may support a favored zone for late afternoon through mid-evening storm development. Some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This, coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... An upstream upper-level trough over the western U.S. will move steadily east, resulting in strengthening southerly mid-level flow across the northern Plains. A Pacific cold front will make modest eastward progress today before becoming quasi-stationary across the western/central Dakotas, however the stronger mid-level flow will remain generally displaced to the west. Weak elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may still result in scattered storms, including supercells, with potential for severe hail. Some risk for strong/severe gusts may also exist with storms closer to the surface front. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... The upper-level low centered near the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to lift east/northeast through tonight, as a notable shortwave trough rotates northeast across the Mid-Atlantic region. Generally weak surface-based instability (MLCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg) will exist across the coastal plain as a belt of stronger 850 mb flow lifts northeast across eastern sections of NC/VA. This will contribute to enlarged low-level hodograph structures and support the continued potential for transient areas of rotation and a few short-lived tornadoes associated with stronger convective elements. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 774 for details on short-term convective trends. Farther west into WV/western VA and NC, subtle large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching upper low will contribute to thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will tend to relax with westward extent, slightly more favorable mid-level lapse rates and 1000-locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will result in the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts and hail. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some hi-res guidance continues to suggest a supercell or two may develop to the west of the departing mid-level trough, where a corridor of differential boundary-layer heating may support a favored zone for late afternoon through mid-evening storm development. Some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This, coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... An upstream upper-level trough over the western U.S. will move steadily east, resulting in strengthening southerly mid-level flow across the northern Plains. A Pacific cold front will make modest eastward progress today before becoming quasi-stationary across the western/central Dakotas, however the stronger mid-level flow will remain generally displaced to the west. Weak elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may still result in scattered storms, including supercells, with potential for severe hail. Some risk for strong/severe gusts may also exist with storms closer to the surface front. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... The upper-level low centered near the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to lift east/northeast through tonight, as a notable shortwave trough rotates northeast across the Mid-Atlantic region. Generally weak surface-based instability (MLCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg) will exist across the coastal plain as a belt of stronger 850 mb flow lifts northeast across eastern sections of NC/VA. This will contribute to enlarged low-level hodograph structures and support the continued potential for transient areas of rotation and a few short-lived tornadoes associated with stronger convective elements. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 774 for details on short-term convective trends. Farther west into WV/western VA and NC, subtle large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching upper low will contribute to thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will tend to relax with westward extent, slightly more favorable mid-level lapse rates and 1000-locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will result in the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts and hail. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some hi-res guidance continues to suggest a supercell or two may develop to the west of the departing mid-level trough, where a corridor of differential boundary-layer heating may support a favored zone for late afternoon through mid-evening storm development. Some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This, coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... An upstream upper-level trough over the western U.S. will move steadily east, resulting in strengthening southerly mid-level flow across the northern Plains. A Pacific cold front will make modest eastward progress today before becoming quasi-stationary across the western/central Dakotas, however the stronger mid-level flow will remain generally displaced to the west. Weak elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may still result in scattered storms, including supercells, with potential for severe hail. Some risk for strong/severe gusts may also exist with storms closer to the surface front. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... The upper-level low centered near the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to lift east/northeast through tonight, as a notable shortwave trough rotates northeast across the Mid-Atlantic region. Generally weak surface-based instability (MLCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg) will exist across the coastal plain as a belt of stronger 850 mb flow lifts northeast across eastern sections of NC/VA. This will contribute to enlarged low-level hodograph structures and support the continued potential for transient areas of rotation and a few short-lived tornadoes associated with stronger convective elements. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 774 for details on short-term convective trends. Farther west into WV/western VA and NC, subtle large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching upper low will contribute to thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will tend to relax with westward extent, slightly more favorable mid-level lapse rates and 1000-locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will result in the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts and hail. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some hi-res guidance continues to suggest a supercell or two may develop to the west of the departing mid-level trough, where a corridor of differential boundary-layer heating may support a favored zone for late afternoon through mid-evening storm development. Some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This, coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... An upstream upper-level trough over the western U.S. will move steadily east, resulting in strengthening southerly mid-level flow across the northern Plains. A Pacific cold front will make modest eastward progress today before becoming quasi-stationary across the western/central Dakotas, however the stronger mid-level flow will remain generally displaced to the west. Weak elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may still result in scattered storms, including supercells, with potential for severe hail. Some risk for strong/severe gusts may also exist with storms closer to the surface front. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... The upper-level low centered near the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to lift east/northeast through tonight, as a notable shortwave trough rotates northeast across the Mid-Atlantic region. Generally weak surface-based instability (MLCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg) will exist across the coastal plain as a belt of stronger 850 mb flow lifts northeast across eastern sections of NC/VA. This will contribute to enlarged low-level hodograph structures and support the continued potential for transient areas of rotation and a few short-lived tornadoes associated with stronger convective elements. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 774 for details on short-term convective trends. Farther west into WV/western VA and NC, subtle large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching upper low will contribute to thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will tend to relax with westward extent, slightly more favorable mid-level lapse rates and 1000-locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will result in the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts and hail. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some hi-res guidance continues to suggest a supercell or two may develop to the west of the departing mid-level trough, where a corridor of differential boundary-layer heating may support a favored zone for late afternoon through mid-evening storm development. Some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This, coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... An upstream upper-level trough over the western U.S. will move steadily east, resulting in strengthening southerly mid-level flow across the northern Plains. A Pacific cold front will make modest eastward progress today before becoming quasi-stationary across the western/central Dakotas, however the stronger mid-level flow will remain generally displaced to the west. Weak elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may still result in scattered storms, including supercells, with potential for severe hail. Some risk for strong/severe gusts may also exist with storms closer to the surface front. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... The upper-level low centered near the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to lift east/northeast through tonight, as a notable shortwave trough rotates northeast across the Mid-Atlantic region. Generally weak surface-based instability (MLCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg) will exist across the coastal plain as a belt of stronger 850 mb flow lifts northeast across eastern sections of NC/VA. This will contribute to enlarged low-level hodograph structures and support the continued potential for transient areas of rotation and a few short-lived tornadoes associated with stronger convective elements. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 774 for details on short-term convective trends. Farther west into WV/western VA and NC, subtle large-scale forcing for ascent with the approaching upper low will contribute to thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will tend to relax with westward extent, slightly more favorable mid-level lapse rates and 1000-locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will result in the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts and hail. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some hi-res guidance continues to suggest a supercell or two may develop to the west of the departing mid-level trough, where a corridor of differential boundary-layer heating may support a favored zone for late afternoon through mid-evening storm development. Some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This, coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... An upstream upper-level trough over the western U.S. will move steadily east, resulting in strengthening southerly mid-level flow across the northern Plains. A Pacific cold front will make modest eastward progress today before becoming quasi-stationary across the western/central Dakotas, however the stronger mid-level flow will remain generally displaced to the west. Weak elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may still result in scattered storms, including supercells, with potential for severe hail. Some risk for strong/severe gusts may also exist with storms closer to the surface front. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/13/2025 Read more