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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the western Great Lakes states and into parts of the Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes may occur. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend southwestward from western Kentucky into Arkansas late. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over the northern Plains as a midlevel wave ejects northeastward toward the upper MS Valley. A surface low will also deepen over ND/MN, with occlusion. Extending southeast from the low will be a warm front, which will rapidly jump into northern MN and WI by late afternoon, and through much of Lower MI during the evening. Southeast winds near this boundary will bring mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints northwestward, resulting in areas of strong instability. Given the fast motion of the shortwave trough and strongly veering winds in the low-levels, the primary severe risk area may be relatively narrow. The main front/dryline will stall near the OH River or Mid MS Valley and southwestward toward the Ozarks. This corridor, primarily later in the evening, will likely foster isolated severe storms as well. Elsewhere, a lingering upper trough will exit the Northeast, and warm advection on the backside of this feature may support isolated strong to severe storms from parts of PA into the Mid Atlantic during the day. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest... Models are in good agreement depicting a strong convective signal near the MN/WI border by 20Z or so, with increasing coverage points east through evening. Forecast soundings across WI and vicinity depict steep lapse rates aloft and hodographs favoring supercells. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out given the very favorable thermodynamics, including a slight capping inversion atop the moist boundary layer in combination with 200-300 m2/s2 ESRH. Southeast of the Enhanced Risk area into IL and IN, storm coverage looks to be more isolated. However, any supercells in this area will have the same significant hail and tornado potential as points north. This activity would likely wait until late in the day/after 21Z and closer to 00Z when heating is maximized to break the cap. Nocturnal severe storms will also be likely across much of Lower MI, northern IN and OH as activity moves in from the west. Supercells producing large hail again appear likely. ...OH Valley into AR Late... The aforementioned stalled boundary will be situated beneath persistent southwest flow at 850 mb Thursday evening and overnight. Robust moisture/high theta-e will be in place from eastern OK into the OH Valley, and scattered storms are likely to develop overnight. This area is a bit more conditional in terms of coverage of severe, but clearly large hail will be possible. A brief tornado may occur as well although hodographs will be primarily straight by this time. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

The Cass County Board of Commissioners declared a fire emergency and adopted fire restrictions through May 19 due to the persistent hot, dry and windy conditions. WDAY-FM (Fargo, N.D.), May 13, 2025

Water users in the Dolores Water Conservancy District can expect to receive 30% to 35% of their full allotment as the snowpack was below normal. The district provides water for farmers, the Ute Mountain Ute Indian Tribe, a nearby fishery and communities like Cortez and Dove Creek. The Colorado Sun (Denver), May 6, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong gusts may occur over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A potent upper speed max will move from the Four Corners area into the central Plains late Wednesday, with the overall trough taking on a negative tilt from MT into NE late. During the daytime, southerly flow and cooling aloft will proceed eastward across the northern Plains, where a surface trough will also deepen. This will provide a focus for afternoon storms, with additional activity late in the day over the central High Plains in association with the ejecting upper wave. To the east, a weakening upper trough will continue lifting north across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with cool temperatures aloft aiding daytime destabilization for scattered thunderstorms. ...Northern Plains... A north-south line of convection is forecast to form within the surface trough across the central Dakotas by 00Z, with additional activity developing over western NE. Shear will be marginal early on, but cool temperatures aloft and 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will favor hail and locally strong gusts. During the evening and overnight, the environment will change rapidly as the upper trough approaches. Additional cooling aloft as well as developing 850 mb warm front should support an MCS or two, with damaging wind and hail both spreading across central and northern NE, eastern SD, and finally into western IA and southwest MN. Capping should limit southward development, perhaps to I-80 or so. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic beneath the ejecting upper trough. Dewpoints in the 60s F along with daytime heating will lead to pockets of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with generally weak but veering winds with height. Scattered storms appear most likely over central NC and VA, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations. Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the Elevated. The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with this outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more