Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible, along with tornadoes with a few that could be strong. Scattered wind damage will be likely, with wind gusts over 75 mph over parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. A secondary jet streak will move northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread a broad moist sector from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a widespread severe weather event today. At the surface, a low will consolidate and move northward across the eastern Dakotas. A well defined warm front will advance northward into the Wisconsin, as a cold front moves eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will result in moderate instability over much of the moist sector. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate near the mid-level low over the upper Mississippi Valley, with storms developing south-southeastward along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Indications suggest that the storms will remain somewhat spaced out, at least early in the event. The discrete nature of the convection, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for supercell development. A broken line of severe storms is expected to move east-northeastward into the vicinities of Milwaukee and Chicago late this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the western shore of Lake Michigan have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated with supercells. The more intense supercells may produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 will also support tornadoes, with the threat becoming maximized as supercells mature. A few strong tornadoes appear likely. Severe threat coverage will likely be maintained as a broken line segment gradually organizes. A transition to linear mode appears likely by early evening. Supercells and rotating elements within the line should be capable of producing tornadoes. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of the line, with gusts over 75 mph possible from western Lower Michigan southward into northern Indiana. A potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue during the early evening with supercells embedded within the line. Further south into the lower Ohio Valley, storm coverage will be a bit more isolated. However, cells that can develop within the strongly unstable airmass will likely become supercells with large hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat is also expected. It appears that a corridor of greater severe threat will develop somewhere near the Ohio River during the late afternoon, which could be dependent upon the distribution and magnitude of instability. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, as a jet streak moves eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place to the southeast of the jet, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. By afternoon, much of this airmass will be moderately unstable. However, large-scale ascent to the south of the jet is forecast to remain relatively weak, which should keep convective development isolated. Any cell that can initiate despite a capping inversion could become severe and have a large hail and wind-damage threat. The threat could persist from late afternoon into the early evening. ....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level ridge will move eastward into the central Appalachians today, as northwesterly flow remains to the east of the Appalachian crest. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place along much of the southern and central Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, topographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence could aid convective initiation as surface temperatures warm up. Short-term model solutions suggest the greatest convective potential will be across eastern Virginia, where low-level flow is forecast to increase during the day. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with supercells or short intense line segments. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/15/2025 Read more

Some areas of western and southern Kansas have not received moisture since November, leaving the wheat in those areas in significant drought stress. March and April were also dry for some of the same areas. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 14, 2025

WW 0247 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W VTN TO 45 SSW 9V9. ..SPC..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-029-031-041-063-075-085-091-101-103-111-113-115- 117-135-149-171-150340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS SDC123-150340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW GLD TO 40 E AIA. ..LYONS..05/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-153-179-181-193-150240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS NEC057-087-145-150240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

A pond on a Lee County farm has dried up, killing nearly 50 fish. The family worried that the well would go dry, too, like many other area wells have already done. The livestock and family both rely on the well for water, so the family rationed water and wasted as little as possible. They used bottled water indoors to reduce demand on the well. WFTX (Cape Coral, Fla.), May 10, 2025

Tyson Foods reported lower-than-expected quarterly sales and stood by its annual revenue forecast amid weaker demand for beef, sending shares down 9% and overshadowing better-than-anticipated profits. There were also concerns that tariff disagreements could increase prices for a variety of consumer goods and continue to lower demand for expensive meat products. Beef prices have already risen after U.S. ranchers slashed their cattle herds due to a years-long drought that dried up pasture lands used for grazing. Tyson’s beef business reported an adjusted operating loss of $181 million for the six months ending in March 2025. Reuters (New York), May 5, 2025

The owner of a winery in Palisade said that they have been using flood irrigation to replenish soil moisture down to 25 feet. Twice as much water as usual was being used to compensate for the absence of soil moisture. The vintner was not concerned about the drought because he has senior water rights, but he anticipates that those with junior water rights may not have enough water. The lower water table was also causing problems for an orchard in Palisade as debris backs up irrigation systems and needs to be cleaned away, requiring more labor and more money to be spent on filters. KKCO-TV NBC 11 (Grand Junction, Colo.), May 12, 2025

No watches are valid as of Wed May 14 06:05:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 14 06:05:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes region Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe thunderstorms are expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks Plateau, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough currently over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies is forecast to eject into the upper MS River Valley over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, a Pacific cold front will rapidly push east into the MS Valley and Midwest as an intense surface cyclone begins to occlude over the eastern Dakotas/western MN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by early-afternoon with increasing coverage across the upper MS Valley through early evening. Increasingly sparse, but severe, thunderstorms are anticipated along the front across the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Ozarks/Texarkana regions through the evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes... 04 UTC surface observations show upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints already spreading northwest into the upper MS Valley as a surface low begins to organized across the northern Plains. Confidence remains high that dewpoints in the mid 60s should overspread much of the region by mid-day Thursday and will contribute to regional MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong forcing for ascent along the approaching front and within the left-exit region of a 50-60 knot mid-level jet will erode capping at the base of a stout EML and promote thunderstorm development by early afternoon across parts of central to southern MN. Elongated hodographs with cross-boundary mean winds will promote organized, initially discrete/semi-discrete cells with an attendant severe wind and hail (potentially as large as 2 inches) threat. Veering winds through the lowest 2 km will also support a tornado threat with early convection. With time, persistent strong forcing along the front should promote some degree of upscale growth/clustering, though supercells will remain likely on the southern fringe of the line where capping will remain stronger and favor more isolated convection. The potential for somewhat longer-lived supercells may be maximized across southeast WI into adjacent portions of IL, northern IN, and southwest lower MI. Forecast soundings depict ESRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, suggesting a significant tornado threat could materialize. Confidence in the coverage of such cells remains limited, but trends will be monitored for the need for increased tornado risk probabilities. ...Midwest and Ohio Valley... Forecast guidance continues to show the best moisture return across parts of IL, IN, and northern KY by Thursday afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s under nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. Despite the very favorable buoyancy, capping at the base of the EML is expected to limit storm coverage across this region. Recent guidance has trended towards perhaps a slightly increased coverage of thunderstorms compared to previous runs, but the overall consensus among deterministic and CAM ensemble guidance is that storm coverage should be sparse. Nonetheless, effective bulk shear values on the order of 40-50 knots will promote supercells during the late afternoon/evening hours with all hazards possible, including the potential for significant hail/tornadoes. Consideration was given for an expansion of the Enhanced risk area, but limited confidence in convective coverage precluded such expansion. ...Texarkana to the Ozark Plateau... Weaker forcing along the front and strong capping will likely limit thunderstorm coverage from the Texarkana region into the Ozark Plateau during the afternoon/evening. Heading into the overnight hours, increasing low-level isentropic ascent over the frontal boundary will support thunderstorm development - especially across the Ozarks into the mid-MS Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will promote initial supercells, but storm propagation along the front will likely promote clustering with time. Nonetheless, a severe hail/wind threat will likely materialize within this corridor. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist, weakly capped air mass is expected to remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday afternoon. While lapse rates will be modest after several days of convective overturning, temperatures warming into the upper 70s/low 80s will promote sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm development. Upper ridging moving into the region will likely limit thunderstorm coverage, but convection developing along the Blue Ridge Mountains will mature in an environment with increasing deep-layer shear. A few organized cells appear possible with an attendant severe hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes region Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe thunderstorms are expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks Plateau, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough currently over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies is forecast to eject into the upper MS River Valley over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, a Pacific cold front will rapidly push east into the MS Valley and Midwest as an intense surface cyclone begins to occlude over the eastern Dakotas/western MN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by early-afternoon with increasing coverage across the upper MS Valley through early evening. Increasingly sparse, but severe, thunderstorms are anticipated along the front across the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Ozarks/Texarkana regions through the evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes... 04 UTC surface observations show upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints already spreading northwest into the upper MS Valley as a surface low begins to organized across the northern Plains. Confidence remains high that dewpoints in the mid 60s should overspread much of the region by mid-day Thursday and will contribute to regional MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong forcing for ascent along the approaching front and within the left-exit region of a 50-60 knot mid-level jet will erode capping at the base of a stout EML and promote thunderstorm development by early afternoon across parts of central to southern MN. Elongated hodographs with cross-boundary mean winds will promote organized, initially discrete/semi-discrete cells with an attendant severe wind and hail (potentially as large as 2 inches) threat. Veering winds through the lowest 2 km will also support a tornado threat with early convection. With time, persistent strong forcing along the front should promote some degree of upscale growth/clustering, though supercells will remain likely on the southern fringe of the line where capping will remain stronger and favor more isolated convection. The potential for somewhat longer-lived supercells may be maximized across southeast WI into adjacent portions of IL, northern IN, and southwest lower MI. Forecast soundings depict ESRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, suggesting a significant tornado threat could materialize. Confidence in the coverage of such cells remains limited, but trends will be monitored for the need for increased tornado risk probabilities. ...Midwest and Ohio Valley... Forecast guidance continues to show the best moisture return across parts of IL, IN, and northern KY by Thursday afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s under nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. Despite the very favorable buoyancy, capping at the base of the EML is expected to limit storm coverage across this region. Recent guidance has trended towards perhaps a slightly increased coverage of thunderstorms compared to previous runs, but the overall consensus among deterministic and CAM ensemble guidance is that storm coverage should be sparse. Nonetheless, effective bulk shear values on the order of 40-50 knots will promote supercells during the late afternoon/evening hours with all hazards possible, including the potential for significant hail/tornadoes. Consideration was given for an expansion of the Enhanced risk area, but limited confidence in convective coverage precluded such expansion. ...Texarkana to the Ozark Plateau... Weaker forcing along the front and strong capping will likely limit thunderstorm coverage from the Texarkana region into the Ozark Plateau during the afternoon/evening. Heading into the overnight hours, increasing low-level isentropic ascent over the frontal boundary will support thunderstorm development - especially across the Ozarks into the mid-MS Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will promote initial supercells, but storm propagation along the front will likely promote clustering with time. Nonetheless, a severe hail/wind threat will likely materialize within this corridor. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist, weakly capped air mass is expected to remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday afternoon. While lapse rates will be modest after several days of convective overturning, temperatures warming into the upper 70s/low 80s will promote sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm development. Upper ridging moving into the region will likely limit thunderstorm coverage, but convection developing along the Blue Ridge Mountains will mature in an environment with increasing deep-layer shear. A few organized cells appear possible with an attendant severe hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level jet will eject into the central Plains on Wednesday with a deepening surface low moving north through the central Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level shortwave trough will advance east from the southern Appalachians to the western Atlantic by the end of the period. ...Northern/Central Plains... Low-level moisture is in place across the Plains this morning with upper 50/low 60s dewpoints in Kansas and mid 60s dewpoints across Oklahoma. However, this moisture is very shallow with a mean mixing ratio around 11 g/kg from the OUN, LMN, and FWD 00Z RAOBs. Therefore, expect this moisture to advect northward through the day given the strengthening southerly flow associated with the deepening cyclone. However, dewpoints across Nebraska and into the Dakotas will likely remain in the upper 50s to low 60s given the upstream moisture quality. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg near the NE/KS border with weaker instability farther north. Expect storm development in the vicinity of the surface low Wednesday afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized. Storms may quickly develop along the frontal zone from north-central Nebraska and into the Dakotas. These storms will pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional development is possible along the dryline/triple point across southwest Nebraska. These storms may have the best potential to be discrete longer and should be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of shear in the region. This will also be the region with the greatest 2+ inch hail potential given the strong instability, moderate shear, and steep lapse rates. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens. However, by this time, expect inhibition to increase substantially across the central Plains with storm mode becoming more linear across northern Nebraska and into eastern South Dakota which should limit the overall tornado threat. ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic... Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas on Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the region, expect scattered thunderstorm development. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization including potential for transient supercell structures. In addition, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are apparent. This should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail is expected to be the primary threat across the region, but coverage is not expected to be high enough to support a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level jet will eject into the central Plains on Wednesday with a deepening surface low moving north through the central Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level shortwave trough will advance east from the southern Appalachians to the western Atlantic by the end of the period. ...Northern/Central Plains... Low-level moisture is in place across the Plains this morning with upper 50/low 60s dewpoints in Kansas and mid 60s dewpoints across Oklahoma. However, this moisture is very shallow with a mean mixing ratio around 11 g/kg from the OUN, LMN, and FWD 00Z RAOBs. Therefore, expect this moisture to advect northward through the day given the strengthening southerly flow associated with the deepening cyclone. However, dewpoints across Nebraska and into the Dakotas will likely remain in the upper 50s to low 60s given the upstream moisture quality. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg near the NE/KS border with weaker instability farther north. Expect storm development in the vicinity of the surface low Wednesday afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized. Storms may quickly develop along the frontal zone from north-central Nebraska and into the Dakotas. These storms will pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional development is possible along the dryline/triple point across southwest Nebraska. These storms may have the best potential to be discrete longer and should be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of shear in the region. This will also be the region with the greatest 2+ inch hail potential given the strong instability, moderate shear, and steep lapse rates. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens. However, by this time, expect inhibition to increase substantially across the central Plains with storm mode becoming more linear across northern Nebraska and into eastern South Dakota which should limit the overall tornado threat. ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic... Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas on Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the region, expect scattered thunderstorm development. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization including potential for transient supercell structures. In addition, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are apparent. This should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail is expected to be the primary threat across the region, but coverage is not expected to be high enough to support a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level jet will eject into the central Plains on Wednesday with a deepening surface low moving north through the central Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level shortwave trough will advance east from the southern Appalachians to the western Atlantic by the end of the period. ...Northern/Central Plains... Low-level moisture is in place across the Plains this morning with upper 50/low 60s dewpoints in Kansas and mid 60s dewpoints across Oklahoma. However, this moisture is very shallow with a mean mixing ratio around 11 g/kg from the OUN, LMN, and FWD 00Z RAOBs. Therefore, expect this moisture to advect northward through the day given the strengthening southerly flow associated with the deepening cyclone. However, dewpoints across Nebraska and into the Dakotas will likely remain in the upper 50s to low 60s given the upstream moisture quality. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg near the NE/KS border with weaker instability farther north. Expect storm development in the vicinity of the surface low Wednesday afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized. Storms may quickly develop along the frontal zone from north-central Nebraska and into the Dakotas. These storms will pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional development is possible along the dryline/triple point across southwest Nebraska. These storms may have the best potential to be discrete longer and should be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of shear in the region. This will also be the region with the greatest 2+ inch hail potential given the strong instability, moderate shear, and steep lapse rates. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens. However, by this time, expect inhibition to increase substantially across the central Plains with storm mode becoming more linear across northern Nebraska and into eastern South Dakota which should limit the overall tornado threat. ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic... Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas on Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the region, expect scattered thunderstorm development. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization including potential for transient supercell structures. In addition, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are apparent. This should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail is expected to be the primary threat across the region, but coverage is not expected to be high enough to support a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more