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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue May 13 22:20:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 13 22:20:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Kansas Water Office asked Gov. Kelly to continue the emergency declaration for Sedgwick, Reno, and Butler counties, which she did on May 12. Thirty-nine counties were in a drought warning and 63 were in a drought watch. KSN-TV (Wichita, Kan.), May 13, 2025

Three large uncontained wildfires in St. Louis County destroyed dozens of homes and cabins and charred more than 20,000 acres. The Camp House Fire, which ignited Sunday, burned roughly 12,000 acres after spreading rapidly to the north and northeast. Bring Me the News (Edina, Minn.), May 13, 2025

Gov. Pillen extended a burn ban for central and western Nebraska for another ten days ending at midnight on May 20. The new executive order renewed a previous mandate prohibiting permitted burns in western and central Nebraska that was scheduled to end at midnight on May 10. Burns have been prohibited in the affected areas since April 23. A subsequent executive order, on April 29, lifted the ban for eastern Nebraska. Nebraska Examiner (Lincoln, Neb.), May 9, 2025

The Grant County Commission renewed a declaration of extreme or severe drought conditions for the third month straight, an action which also extended fireworks restrictions in the county. Commissioners also approved a mutual aid agreement between Grant and Luna counties for fire services, allowing either county to request the other’s fire departments for assistance. Silver City Daily Press (N.M.), May 13, 2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more