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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and weakly capped environment. ...Central to Northern Plains... Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front. ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote transient storm organization. While a similar thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead of the mid-level vorticity maximum. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NC/VA/WV VICINITY...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible: 1) today in vicinity of Virginia-North Carolina-West Virginia, 2) during the late afternoon to mid-evening over a portion of the Deep South, and 3) this evening into early morning Wednesday in parts of the northern Great Plains. ...NC/VA/WV vicinity... A mid/upper trough centered on the Mid to Deep South will gradually shift east-northeastward, reaching the OH Valley to FL Peninsula by early Wednesday. The low-level warm conveyor will remain displaced well downstream across eastern NC and advance north across the Mid-Atlantic States towards the Lower Great Lakes. Early-day severe potential will be tied to this conveyor in eastern NC/VA where low-topped convection is anticipated. While instability will remain quite limited, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and near-saturated thermodynamic profiles will offer potential for a brief tornado. West of the warm conveyor, more pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur, likely resulting in moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This coupled with weak mid-level height falls should support scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain moderate across the Piedmont, with decreasing values westward towards the trough. This renders a nebulous transition between loosely organized to pulse convection. For now, have delineated the MRGL risk where at least modest values of deep-layer shear could support multicell clusters. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are the expected hazards, west of the coastal plain. ...AL/MS/TN vicinity... Some guidance suggests a supercell or two may develop on the backside of the departing mid-level trough. A mesoscale corridor of differential boundary-layer heating, coincident with the eastward expansion of the southern Great Plains EML across the Lower MS Valley, may support a favored corridor for late afternoon to mid-evening storm development. Despite weak low-level winds, some veering of the wind profile should yield modest hodograph curvature. This coupled with moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies will favor a conditional supercell threat. ...Northern Great Plains... A broad, but more amplified mid/upper trough will gradually shift east across the West. A downstream split in the stronger flow regime is expected over the southern Rockies to adjacent High Plains in the wake of the prior blocking pattern over the central states. This will yield a meridional mid/upper wind profile across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will stall in the western to central Dakotas vicinity. Strong mid/upper winds will remain displaced west of this boundary, where strengthening large-scale ascent is anticipated tonight as an embedded shortwave impulse rotates through the eastern portion of the western trough. Elevated buoyancy is expected to remain weak given poor-quality low-level moisture. Still, with the strengthening effective bulk shear and forcing for ascent, a few elevated supercells are possible tonight into early morning Wednesday. Isolated severe hail should be the primary hazard, with potential for strong (but sub-severe) gusts closer to the surface front. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/13/2025 Read more

Governor Laura Kelly issued a proclamation updating the drought declarations for Kansas. Three counties were in emergency status, 55 in warning status, and 47 in watch status. The three counties in emergency status were Harvey, Reno, and Sedgwick. WIBW-TV 13 (Topeka, Kan.), Oct 11, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND IN NORTHEAST MT TO FAR NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas, and through the rest of this evening in northeast Montana to far northwest North Dakota. ...Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas... Potential for strong to severe storms will remain limited across the Southeast tonight. One area of low-probability tornado/wind threat that may persist is downstream of an arc of ongoing convection across eastern GA to upstate SC. While downstream instability is weak, enough of a gap exists between this arc and the persistent warm-conveyor rain swath across eastern NC. Adequate low to deep-layer shear should be maintained for transient weak rotation through 12Z Tuesday. This might support a brief tornado or localized wet microburst. These threats should tend to become more confined towards the SC to southern NC coastal plain overnight. ...Northeast MT and far northwest ND... High-based convection persists along and rearward of an undercutting Pacific cold front marching east into northeast MT. Despite meager MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z GGW sounding, 45-55 F surface temperature-dew points spreads ahead of the front will promote potential for a few gusts of 55-70 mph through late evening. ..Grams.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND IN NORTHEAST MT TO FAR NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas, and through the rest of this evening in northeast Montana to far northwest North Dakota. ...Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas... Potential for strong to severe storms will remain limited across the Southeast tonight. One area of low-probability tornado/wind threat that may persist is downstream of an arc of ongoing convection across eastern GA to upstate SC. While downstream instability is weak, enough of a gap exists between this arc and the persistent warm-conveyor rain swath across eastern NC. Adequate low to deep-layer shear should be maintained for transient weak rotation through 12Z Tuesday. This might support a brief tornado or localized wet microburst. These threats should tend to become more confined towards the SC to southern NC coastal plain overnight. ...Northeast MT and far northwest ND... High-based convection persists along and rearward of an undercutting Pacific cold front marching east into northeast MT. Despite meager MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z GGW sounding, 45-55 F surface temperature-dew points spreads ahead of the front will promote potential for a few gusts of 55-70 mph through late evening. ..Grams.. 05/13/2025 Read more