Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of severe weather is anticipated through early next week as a pair of upper-level troughs traverse the U.S. and will be favorably timed to allow moisture recovery into central/southern portions of the CONUS. The upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to migrate into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. In the wake of this feature, a second long-wave trough will begin to deepen across the West before migrating into the Plains by early/mid next week with attendant chances for strong/severe thunderstorms. ...D4/Friday... A stalled boundary will likely be draped from the Ozarks into the OH Valley at the beginning of the forecast period. A weak, low-amplitude mid-level perturbation emanating out of the central Plains will promote secondary surface low development across the southern Plains that will maintain southerly low-level flow. As such, some northward migration of the boundary as an effective warm front appears probable. Thunderstorm development along the boundary is anticipated by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow oriented along the frontal zone should promote initially discrete/semi-discrete cells with the potential for upscale growth into one or more organized clusters. Some disagreement in exactly where the corridor of highest severe threat will become established persists and is associated with the coverage and intensity of ongoing convection Friday morning. Recent GFS/GEFS runs hint that more isolated convection early Friday will allow for more aggressive northward advancement of the front, while ECMWF solutions hint at slower northward progression of the boundary. The 15% risk area has been expanded to best encompass the overlap between these two dichotomous solutions. ...D6/Sunday to D8/Tuesday... A deepening upper level trough over the western states will promote several days of lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern to central High Plains beginning this weekend. This will allow for more seasonal moisture return into the Plains with most ensemble members showing dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s by D6/Sunday afternoon across TX, OK, and southern KS. Deterministic solutions continue to vary regarding the exact timing and evolution of the upper-level wave (and any embedded impulses), but the general consensus is that severe thunderstorms will be possible as upper-level disturbances overspread the Plains and promote eastward mixing of the dryline into an increasingly buoyant warm sector. Confidence on any particular day remains too limited for risk probabilities, but the overall synoptic regime and convective QPF signals in ensemble guidance suggest that the potential for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms is increasing for the southern/central Plains beginning D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of severe weather is anticipated through early next week as a pair of upper-level troughs traverse the U.S. and will be favorably timed to allow moisture recovery into central/southern portions of the CONUS. The upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to migrate into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. In the wake of this feature, a second long-wave trough will begin to deepen across the West before migrating into the Plains by early/mid next week with attendant chances for strong/severe thunderstorms. ...D4/Friday... A stalled boundary will likely be draped from the Ozarks into the OH Valley at the beginning of the forecast period. A weak, low-amplitude mid-level perturbation emanating out of the central Plains will promote secondary surface low development across the southern Plains that will maintain southerly low-level flow. As such, some northward migration of the boundary as an effective warm front appears probable. Thunderstorm development along the boundary is anticipated by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow oriented along the frontal zone should promote initially discrete/semi-discrete cells with the potential for upscale growth into one or more organized clusters. Some disagreement in exactly where the corridor of highest severe threat will become established persists and is associated with the coverage and intensity of ongoing convection Friday morning. Recent GFS/GEFS runs hint that more isolated convection early Friday will allow for more aggressive northward advancement of the front, while ECMWF solutions hint at slower northward progression of the boundary. The 15% risk area has been expanded to best encompass the overlap between these two dichotomous solutions. ...D6/Sunday to D8/Tuesday... A deepening upper level trough over the western states will promote several days of lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern to central High Plains beginning this weekend. This will allow for more seasonal moisture return into the Plains with most ensemble members showing dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s by D6/Sunday afternoon across TX, OK, and southern KS. Deterministic solutions continue to vary regarding the exact timing and evolution of the upper-level wave (and any embedded impulses), but the general consensus is that severe thunderstorms will be possible as upper-level disturbances overspread the Plains and promote eastward mixing of the dryline into an increasingly buoyant warm sector. Confidence on any particular day remains too limited for risk probabilities, but the overall synoptic regime and convective QPF signals in ensemble guidance suggest that the potential for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms is increasing for the southern/central Plains beginning D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and overnight hours. ...Synopsis... The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping with southward extent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest and OH Valley. ...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes... Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region. Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within this environment, but further refinements are likely as the likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent. ...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley... The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection, though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning. ..Moore.. 05/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...Synopsis... Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Plains... Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25 mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated to critical conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep, dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more