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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into the Southeast... The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared to previous days. ...Intermountain West into the Great Plains... A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization. However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops, hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0245 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 11 18:51:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. The strongest activity may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and isolated hail. ...Southeast... The mid/upper low over the lower MS Valley will pivot northeast toward the TN Valley on Monday. A belt of enhanced south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-45 kt of flow between 700-500 mb, will support effective shear magnitude greater than 30 kt across much of the risk area. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger daytime heating with aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg forecast. Similar to the previous couple of days, bands of cells/clusters are expected through the day. This activity will pose an isolated risk for locally damaging gusts, marginal hail, and a tornado or two. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2025 Read more