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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... Efficient diurnal mixing of a very dry boundary layer under strong south-southwesterly flow aloft and a strengthening lee low will continue to support gusty south-southwest winds through today across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. The winds combined with dry fuels under possible record setting heat will support widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the Region. Recent observed soundings and surface observations across the region continue to show minimal upstream boundary layer moisture moving into the region supporting afternoon relative humidity below 20 percent as far north as the North Dakota/Minnesota U.S./Canada border. Critical highlights were extended northward into northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ..Williams.. 05/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as a trough and strong southwesterly flow aloft move over the West. A lee low will aid strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains and Midwest, while a cutoff low meanders along the Gulf Coast. The dry southerly winds ahead of returning surface moisture will support dry and windy conditions over areas with little recent precipitation. Several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Plains today and tonight. ...Plains and Upper Midwest... East of the deepening lee trough/cyclone, strong southerly winds are likely across much of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. As flow aloft form the advancing upper trough overspreads the region, diurnal mixing will support widespread winds of 20-30 mph. Afternoon RH values will fall to 20-25%, supporting several hours of dry and windy conditions. As area fuels have continued to dry with little recent rainfall (ERCs in the 80th percentiles), critical fire-weather conditions appear likely today into tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more