Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more

WW 0114 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 114 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC117-131-157-201-160940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON NEC023-035-059-067-081-093-095-097-109-121-125-129-133-143-151- 155-159-163-169-185-160940- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CLAY FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PAWNEE POLK SALINE SAUNDERS SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER YORK Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL TO 25 W EAR. WW 113 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-183-160800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL SMITH NEC001-019-061-079-099-137-181-160800- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL TO 25 W EAR. WW 113 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-183-160800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL SMITH NEC001-019-061-079-099-137-181-160800- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL TO 25 W EAR. WW 113 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-183-160800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL SMITH NEC001-019-061-079-099-137-181-160800- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL TO 25 W EAR. WW 113 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-183-160800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL SMITH NEC001-019-061-079-099-137-181-160800- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL TO 25 W EAR. WW 113 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-183-160800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL SMITH NEC001-019-061-079-099-137-181-160800- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL TO 25 W EAR. WW 113 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-183-160800- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL SMITH NEC001-019-061-079-099-137-181-160800- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0453 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 113... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...South-central/southeast NE and north-central/northeast KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 113... Valid 160642Z - 160745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues. SUMMARY...Cluster of severe storms across north-central KS into south-central NE should be maintained east-northeast through the pre-dawn hours. A downstream/replacement of WW 113 will likely occur prior to its scheduled expiration at 08Z. DISCUSSION...Convection has consolidated into a small linear cluster, mainly across north-central KS. Thus far, measured severe gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1.25 inches have been reported. Given the increasing linear character, it is plausible that a swath of severe wind mixed with hail will persist east-northeast into parts of northeast KS and southeast NE during the next few hours. Despite downstream surface dew points largely holding in the low 60s, MLCIN is weak. With 40-50 kt 0-1 km shear, low-level mesovortices are possible as well. ..Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40729963 41309914 41459850 41319744 40869675 40559642 40099613 39359641 39119705 38999884 40159906 40729963 Read more

WW 113 TORNADO KS NE OK TX 160105Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Kansas South central Nebraska Northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle The northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 805 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening along a dryline from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas, with an environment that will become more favorable for tornadic supercells after dark. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible with the more discrete/persistent supercells, along with very large hail up to 2.5-3 inches in diameter. Some clustering of storms will be possible later tonight, with an accompanying threat for damaging winds of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of Kearney NE to 105 miles south of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...WW 111...WW 112... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI. At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary. Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough, southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30 kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR. Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at time given differences in model output. ...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley... An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift, instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024 Read more