Severe Storms

MD 2060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NE...FAR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 2060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western SD/NE...far eastern WY...northeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112047Z - 112245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Storm development is underway this afternoon across parts of the CO Front Range into southeast WY. Farther north, strong heating has occurred from parts of the NE Panhandle into western SD. The strongest instability resides across parts of western SD, where the 18Z UNR sounding (modified for recent surface observations) depicts steep tropospheric lapse rates and MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg. Effective shear of 30-40 kt across this area is favorable for organized convection, though coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Any storm that can mature within this environment could pose a threat for both severe hail and wind, given the favorable lapse rates. Farther south, there is some potential for ongoing convection to intensify as it moves eastward into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment across northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, though MLCINH also increases with eastward extent. Sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms, including potential for isolated severe hail/wind. ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41020485 44830410 45740373 45780268 45820193 44360178 42660196 41670209 41040223 40040284 39630341 39580374 39540424 39640462 40160471 41020485 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening. The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards this evening. In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT. A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the northern High Plains. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens. ..15_ows.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough over the western U.S. will become more diffuse through the Day 2 period. This will aid in reducing daytime surface winds across portions of the Southwest and in particular Utah. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Utah Friday with southwest winds of up to 15 mph and relative humidity falling to around 15% by the afternoon. However, fuel dryness is lacking to allow for significant wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will broaden and the mid-level jet will lose definition on Friday. Though not overly intense, a surface low will move into the central Plains and help promote windier conditions for parts of the central/southern Plains. Recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels will mean very minimal fire risk. Dry conditions will persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower here. ...Synopsis... A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS where high pressure will be in place. ...Southern/central High Plains... Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop. Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated. ...Northern Plains... Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds/large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2025 Read more