Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. ...Synopsis... The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern Plains will become more diffuse during the period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary hazard. ...Upper Midwest... A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. ...Synopsis... The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern Plains will become more diffuse during the period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary hazard. ...Upper Midwest... A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. ...Synopsis... The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern Plains will become more diffuse during the period. ...Southern/Central High Plains... On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to be the primary hazard. ...Upper Midwest... A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually weakens. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD, with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only pockets of positive theta-e advection. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains, but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities. ...Four Corners Region... Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of this activity may persist well into the evening over NM. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually weakens. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD, with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only pockets of positive theta-e advection. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains, but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities. ...Four Corners Region... Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of this activity may persist well into the evening over NM. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually weakens. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD, with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only pockets of positive theta-e advection. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains, but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities. ...Four Corners Region... Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of this activity may persist well into the evening over NM. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually weakens. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD, with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only pockets of positive theta-e advection. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains, but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities. ...Four Corners Region... Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of this activity may persist well into the evening over NM. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually weakens. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD, with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only pockets of positive theta-e advection. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains, but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities. ...Four Corners Region... Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of this activity may persist well into the evening over NM. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually weakens. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD, with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only pockets of positive theta-e advection. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains, but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities. ...Four Corners Region... Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of this activity may persist well into the evening over NM. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025 Read more

MD 2061 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120311Z - 120515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few more instances of severe hail may occur over the next few hours with any discrete supercells that form or persist. DISCUSSION...Isolated, splitting supercells have developed along or immediately north of a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary, and have produced severe hail over the past hour. These storms are likely elevated amid an environment where MLCINH continues to increase. When also considering weak forcing for ascent, questions remain if additional storms will form, and if the ongoing supercells will persist. Nonetheless, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear will continue to support the potential for severe-hail-producing supercells for at least a couple more hours. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48560388 48830146 48709934 48309801 47859763 47459812 47359937 47390090 47580233 47900329 48080348 48560388 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset. Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However, minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, due to expected isolated nature of the cells. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 11 22:46:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 11 22:46:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Day 3-5/Saturday-Monday... A mid-level trough across the Intermountain West will pivot northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains in the Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday period, shifting the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Rockies. Higher forecast confidence now exists in a positively tilted mid-level short wave trough entering the Northwest on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday after a brief warm and dry day on Day 3/Saturday. Cooler temperatures behind an associated cold front, influx of Pacific moisture and precipitation will mitigate fire weather concerns for the Pacific Northwest through Day 5/Monday. Meanwhile ridging across the Southern Plains into the Midwest will support dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the weekend. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Ridging will quickly build over the Pacific Northwest along with the development of a coastal thermal trough by Day 6/Tuesday. An offshore pressure gradient will support a drier east/northeast flow west of the Cascades on Tuesday. However, recent moisture and expected preceding rainfall along and west of the Cascades on Day 4/Sunday should lower fire weather concerns overall in advance of the potential offshore wind event. High pressure will continue to promote above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across much of the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through the Day 8/Thursday period, further drying fuels across the region. ..Williams.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more