Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central Nebraska...northwest Kansas...and far northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191925Z - 192130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential this afternoon. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery and radar data show increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and first signs of convective initiation within a zone of differential heating along a composite outflow-surface front in west-central NE. While weak large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on timing/evolution of convection this afternoon, continued heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and possibly farther west over the High Plains. A long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50-60 kt of effective shear) and strongly unstable air mass should initially support splitting supercells with a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. However, a strengthening low-level jet and increasing SRH will also favor an increasing tornado risk into this evening. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon. ..Weinman/Smith.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39610082 39830171 40310221 41250250 42210223 42670177 42800112 42790013 42629943 42119899 41389893 40069926 39649981 39610082 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 ..MOORE..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-192140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS NCC015-029-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-127-131-135-139- 143-145-181-183-185-192140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC003-007-011-025-029-033-036-037-041-047-049-053-057-065-073- Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0527 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0527 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with a severe wind/hail threat are likely this evening across the northern High Plains into the Midwest, with a couple of tornadoes possible over western Nebraska. A few damaging gusts also remain possible with storms over Virginia into North Carolina. ...20Z Update... Substantial changes have been made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update. First, Slight risk probabilities have been dropped across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley region. Storms ongoing over this part of the CONUS have not shown robust severe potential thus far. Ongoing storms are also overturning the troposphere during peak heating, casting doubts on adequate airmass modification/destabilization for a renewed organized severe threat. Nonetheless, an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado could occur with a stronger storm that can become sustained, hence the maintenance of a Category 1/Marginal Risk. Wind-driven Slight risk probabilities have been added over portions of the MO River Valley, joining the Slight risk across the High Plains and Midwest areas. From eastern NE into northern IL, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm-frontal low-level boundary this evening given enhanced convergence driven by a low-level jet. Furthermore, there is some concern that supercells could congeal into an MCS across central NE and potentially propagate eastward along this boundary early tonight, fostering a damaging gust threat. Otherwise, ongoing multicells over VA into NC will continue through the afternoon with a damaging gust threat. Supercells and small bowing segments are also still expected across the central/northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind and hail. A couple of tornadoes may accompany any more robust, sustained supercells over western into central NE with the onset of low-level jet development this evening. ..Squitieri.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Midwest/Great Lakes... An ongoing sub-severe MCS continues east-southeast across IL with an attendant warm advection cluster of thunderstorms downstream over the lower Wabash Valley. Considerable convective overturning coupled with convective cloud debris have acted to limit destabilization thus far across IL into western IN and northward into the southwest Great Lakes. Have reduced severe probabilities this outlook update for northern IL into WI due to limited destabilization, and models converging on limited storm coverage through the remainder of the day and their depiction of primary thunderstorm activity tonight occurring farther south/southwest over IA into central IL towards daybreak. However, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorm clusters over IL/IN, gradual heating will probably support some intensification of storms into the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered damaging winds in small clusters appear to be the primary severe hazard. Other thunderstorm development is possible over Lower MI where a wind-damage threat may materialize with the stronger storms that develop this afternoon. Later this afternoon but more likely into tonight, additional storms are forecast to develop on the trailing outflow with an attendant risk for mainly hail/wind. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A west-east draped frontal zone resides over southern PA to the north of this region. However, a very moist low-level airmass featuring lower to mid 70s dewpoints will continue to heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon and promote the development of moderate buoyancy. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, high PW (around 2 inches) will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe gusts and scattered wind damage with the more organized cluster(s). Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow will favor eastward-moving storm activity. The severe risk is expected to concentrate during the 20-01 UTC period as storms move towards central VA and into eastern VA by this evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving eastward across the northwest quarter of MT this morning. This will continue eastward towards eastern MT and the western Dakotas by early evening. Weaker mid-level westerly flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east along the lee trough. As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. Recent model guidance indicates a few supercells may develop across west-central NE late this afternoon into the evening. Some enlargement of the hodograph during the evening combined with moist low levels may support a couple hour window for a locally higher tornado risk compared to within this broader region. Read more