Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Western Utah... The slow moving upper-level trough across the western U.S. will keep a 40-50 knot mid-level jet stretched from southern California into southern Wyoming through Thursday. Daytime mixing of a dry boundary layer will support breezy southwest winds of 15-20 mph across western Utah Thursday afternoon. The elevated winds combined with daytime relative humidity of around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across western Utah. Relative humidity recoveries through tonight only in the 25-35% range will precondition finer fuels, which could support wildfire spread Thursday afternoon. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE AND GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms could occur this afternoon and early evening across the north-central High Plains and Great Basin. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025/ ...High Plains/Front Range... As the upper ridge tends to abate/shift away, the region will begin to be influenced by the upper trough over the West. While some stronger storms could occur across a relatively broad north-south extent of the High Plains, portions of eastern Wyoming and the northern Colorado Front Range and immediately adjacent High Plains are expected to be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies (25 kt), aside from steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Low severe probabilities have been introduced for what should be an isolated/relatively marginal severe potential later this afternoon into evening. ...Great Basin/Interior West... The region will be influenced by a belt of stronger cyclonic flow aloft preceding the upper low centered over northern California. Adequate moisture, steep lapse rates, and stronger deep-layer winds could allow for some storms to produce gusty winds and small hail, mainly across central/northern Nevada into southwest Idaho. Read more