Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther east into portions of eastern/central Wyoming, where the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests several hours of dry and gusty westerly winds during the afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada/Idaho border, and across the Wyoming basin, where sustained surface winds near 25 mph are possible. Continued dry and breezy conditions across the northern Great Basin may also lead to the emergence of lightning holdovers from several recent days of wet/dry thunderstorms - especially along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible farther south across portions of central/southern Nevada. At this time, it appears mid-level cloud cover (central Nevada) and recent heavier rainfall (southern Nevada) should limit widespread concerns in these areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more