SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 days 3 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 4 hours ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 4 hours ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 4 hours ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 4 hours ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 4 hours ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 4 hours ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 Status Reports

3 days 7 hours ago
WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-061-063-099-125-100340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA KSC023-055-067-071-075-081-093-109-171-181-187-193-199-203- 100340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE FINNEY GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LOGAN SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609

3 days 7 hours ago
WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 092050Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and early evening across the watch area. Large hail will be the main concern, along with gusty winds in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Burlington CO to 30 miles north of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 34015. ...Hart Read more

SPC MD 2056

3 days 8 hours ago
MD 2056 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 100026Z - 100230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Hail threat is expected to persist with storms this evening, along with some wind risk. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms are shifting slowly southeast across the central High Plains this evening. Strong boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in this activity attaining severe levels as lapse rates are seasonally steep across this region. However, over the next few hours, nocturnal cooling will lead to increasing CINH and surface-based updrafts should being to struggle as they decouple from the boundary layer. 00z sounding from DDC exhibits this trend with weak inhibition noted around 1km. Even so, LLJ is forecast to increase after sunset and this should aid one or more elevated thunderstorm clusters that should propagate across western KS. Hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40000304 39380072 37350072 37980304 40000304 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 8 hours ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 days 8 hours ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more
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