Severe Storms

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-047-049-063-069-073-075-085-091-101-103- 111-113-115-117-149-161-171-192340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GOSPER GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1722 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... FOR EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Virginia and far northeast North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 192021Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging/severe winds will become increasingly concentrated across eastern Virginia over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A mixture of semi-discrete cells and convective clusters continue to evolve across central VA and northern NC, and have a history of sporadic wind damage and small hail. Recent GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically integrated liquid/echo top data continue to show transient, but intense, convective cores developing across the region as storms move into, or develop within, a very buoyant environment. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest MLCAPE has increased to 2000-3000 J/kg across eastern VA as temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s with low-level lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/km. The trajectories of ongoing cells and clusters suggests that storm interactions/convergence will become increasingly likely across eastern VA within this CAPE maximum over the next several hours. As this occurs, the favorable thermodynamic environment should support an uptick in storm coverage along with increasing probability for damaging downburst winds and perhaps small hail. ..Moore.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36697872 36987868 37737820 38147785 38327755 38397736 38387697 38317660 38037629 37427615 37097610 36817621 36597642 36467681 36377712 36357750 36367791 36427824 36547852 36697872 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0528 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0528 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 528 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 192210Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Southwest North Dakota Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 410 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. This activity will spread east-southeastward through the evening, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Glasgow MT to 30 miles south southeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526...WW 527... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 ..BUNTING..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-192240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS NCC015-029-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-127-131-135-139- 143-145-181-183-185-192240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC003-007-011-025-029-033-036-037-041-047-049-053-057-065-073- Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more