Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY, western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning storms. Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight. A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could exist during the morning as the shortwave continues east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a limited severe risk. ...Four Corners... A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8 inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected from eastern Montana into western North Dakota, while isolated/localized wind or marginal hail will be possible across a large portion of the Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will remain nearly stationary across the western CONUS, with axis extending from western NV into southern MB/SK. East of this trough, a broad fetch of 30-40 kt 500 mb southwesterlies will affect much of the Rockies and disturbances rounding the upper ridge into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the East, where a elongated/weak upper trough will exist. Southerly surface winds will maintain a low-level moist plume across the MO Valley with 60s F dewpoints, with 50s F into much of eastern MT where surface winds will back to southeasterly. The combination of daytime heating and substantial southwest flow aloft across a large part of the Rockies, along with at least marginal instability over a wide area suggest sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Rockies into the northern Plains... Lapse rates will steepen over the area as heating commences, and with the 500 mb -10 C isotherm extending from SD to southern UT. By virtue of an uncapped air mass, sporadic afternoon storms are likely over the higher terrain over northwest NM, CO, and over much of ID into MT, while warm and drier air will generally be found from UT into parts of central WY. However, even in the drier areas, a few storms are likely as weak levels of instability develop. Conditionally, the entire region will have deep-layer shear at or above 35-40 kt, which will favor cellular storm mode. Small hail appears most likely over much of the Intermountain West, with locally strong gusts as well. A potentially greater severe threat will extend from eastern MT and WY into the western Dakotas, where moisture and instability will be greater. A surface low is expected over southeast MT/northwest SD, with backed/moist winds wrapping west. Forecast soundings in this area depict robust CAPE profiles and hodographs favoring cells producing hail, or perhaps bowing structures with both wind and hail risk. Storms may form over south-central MT/northern WY after 21Z, moving into the western Dakotas during the evening. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible over far western Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeastern Colorado early this evening. A few storms storms will also affect parts of western Idaho into eastern Oregon during the early evening. ...Discussion... A small cluster of severe storms likely producing hail is currently affecting far western NE. These storms are within a small area of uncapped air mass, and will likely remain tied to the immediate area and perhaps affect a small portion of northeast CO before diminishing. Strong southeast surface winds/inflow will likely support the ongoing cluster for a couple hours before CIN becomes too large. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2059. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms continues to move northward across southwest ID and southeast OR ahead of the upper vorticity max. The 00Z BOI sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates and marginal overall shear, and this may support gusty winds or small hail. However, the overall risk for severe storms appears low after sunset with limited instability. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible over far western Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeastern Colorado early this evening. A few storms storms will also affect parts of western Idaho into eastern Oregon during the early evening. ...Discussion... A small cluster of severe storms likely producing hail is currently affecting far western NE. These storms are within a small area of uncapped air mass, and will likely remain tied to the immediate area and perhaps affect a small portion of northeast CO before diminishing. Strong southeast surface winds/inflow will likely support the ongoing cluster for a couple hours before CIN becomes too large. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2059. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms continues to move northward across southwest ID and southeast OR ahead of the upper vorticity max. The 00Z BOI sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates and marginal overall shear, and this may support gusty winds or small hail. However, the overall risk for severe storms appears low after sunset with limited instability. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible over far western Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeastern Colorado early this evening. A few storms storms will also affect parts of western Idaho into eastern Oregon during the early evening. ...Discussion... A small cluster of severe storms likely producing hail is currently affecting far western NE. These storms are within a small area of uncapped air mass, and will likely remain tied to the immediate area and perhaps affect a small portion of northeast CO before diminishing. Strong southeast surface winds/inflow will likely support the ongoing cluster for a couple hours before CIN becomes too large. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2059. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms continues to move northward across southwest ID and southeast OR ahead of the upper vorticity max. The 00Z BOI sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates and marginal overall shear, and this may support gusty winds or small hail. However, the overall risk for severe storms appears low after sunset with limited instability. ..Jewell.. 09/11/2025 Read more

MD 2059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Areas affected...Southwest NE Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110010Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple hours of severe hail and wind are possible with a pair of slow-moving supercells before convection weakens after dusk. DISCUSSION...Convection near the WY/NE border has consolidated into a pair of nearly stationary supercells. This recent organization appears to be in response to some strengthening of both mid-level west-southwesterlies and low-level southerlies in CYS VWP data. The latter has also supported an influx of 50-54 F surface dew points, which has aided in the supercell intensification. However, this will likely be transient/short-lived, similar to how convection had pulsed up and weaken along the south slope of the Black Hills in far southwest SD. Onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling and large surface temperature/dew point spreads should foster outflow-dominated cells that have pronounced weakening after dusk. ..Grams/Hart.. 09/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41820347 41570259 41080258 40790326 40900388 41170419 41650397 41820347 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 10 23:40:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 10 23:40:01 UTC 2025.

MD 2058 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NV INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OR
Mesoscale Discussion 2058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north-central NV into southwest ID and extreme southeast OR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102049Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms may develop by late afternoon. Localized strong to severe gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible. DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to develop across parts of north-central NV this afternoon, to the east of a mid/upper-level cyclone centered over northern CA. Storm coverage is expected to increase through late afternoon, as a midlevel vorticity maximum moves across the Great Basin, along the eastern periphery of the upper cyclone. Low-level moisture is generally limited across the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cold temperatures aloft will support MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in areas where heating continues through late afternoon. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow to the east of the upper cyclone will support a gradual increase in effective shear into the 25-35 kt range, sufficient for at least transient storm organization. While storm intensity will be tempered by the modest buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of strong to locally severe gusts, especially if any clustering and outflow consolidation can evolve with time. Small to near-severe hail also cannot be ruled out, given the generally cool temperature profiles and favorable lapse rates. ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV... LAT...LON 41141578 39521614 39171710 39471759 40961732 42761757 43241704 43141630 42841585 42461565 41851565 41141578 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will slowly translate eastward into the central and northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to shift east of the Continental Divide by early next week. Diminishing mid-level flow will reduce the fire weather threat across Utah with dry conditions persisting across much of the Desert Southwest. Farther west, a mid-level short wave and cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential showers and thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Sunday. A general ridging pattern from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes will support light winds and above normal temperatures over much of the Deep South/Midwest, aiding in drying fuels across the region. ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday... There is considerable uncertainty in the synoptic pattern next week across CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals large member spreads/variance in timing of potential short waves that could reintroduce fire weather concerns where dry fuels emerge. However, fuel indices are generally on a downward trend across the western U.S. which will mitigate overall fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and warm temperatures will continue cure/dry fuels across the Ohio River Valley and Deep South regions but generally light surface winds under high pressure will subdue fire weather threats. ..Williams.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more