Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the Dakotas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow eastward progress through tonight. An embedded disturbance is forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High Plains primarily overnight as the upper-level ridge to the east gradually weakens. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected across MT/WY east of a mid-level trough axis, where cool mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s will lead to MLCAPE in the 500 - locally 1000 J/kg range. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kts will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. As storms move/develop farther east across eastern MT/western ND/northwest SD towards evening, greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) should result in a severe hail and wind risk with isolated stronger storms within a similarly-sheared environment. Although the low-level jet should be weaker in this area tonight, lingering instability across the western Dakotas suggests some continued severe risk, primarily for strong/damaging gusts, into the overnight hours. ...Four Corners Region... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop/intensify today from eastern AZ/southeast UT across western portions of NM/CO, within a moist plume on the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to modest MLCAPE, with locally higher values (above 1000 J/kg) over southeastern AZ. A predominantly cellular or cluster mode is expected, with isolated stronger storms capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Storms should persist into the evening over western NM/CO, with a few stronger storms remaining possible. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/12/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota. On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however. Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period. Read more

MD 2062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota...Far Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120608Z - 120845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential for large hail threat may continue for a couple more hours over northeastern North Dakota, but the threat should remain too isolated for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery over northeastern North Dakota, which is providing support for a small cluster of strong thunderstorms. These storms are located along the northeastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 2000 J/kg range. In this area, forecast soundings from the RAP have 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment should support a potential for large hail with the strongest of cells within the ongoing cluster. This cluster is forecast to move eastward across the remainder of northeast North Dakota and into far northwest Minnesota over the next few hours. Any severe threat should be too isolated for weather watch issuance. ..Broyles/Bunting.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48999936 48990007 48830049 48500062 48180048 47949973 47779747 47769663 47959627 48489602 48779610 48969650 48989753 48999936 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern and central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains, will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Northern/central Plains... A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating, more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards. ...Southern High Plains... A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2025 Read more