Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

MD 2063 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arizona...northwestern New Mexico...southeastern Utah...southwestern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121516Z - 121745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind and hail will continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Upper-level divergence from a broad trough and advancing jet streak across the western US is bringing forcing for ascent across a plume of modest mid-level moisture across across southern/central Arizona into western New Mexico, southern Utah, and southern Colorado. This has led to widely scattered thunderstorm development through the morning. Temperatures are warming into the mid to upper 60s, with some breaks in the cloud cover. This should allow for insolation and heating with additional cooling aloft forecast with the trough. This should yield around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support a few more organized cells capable of strong to severe wind and marginally severe hail. Coverage of a more organized severe threat remains low confidence, and as such a watch is unlikely at this time. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR... LAT...LON 37791011 39120983 40090888 40130752 38620673 36860635 35140728 33040864 32560943 32551009 32811020 37791011 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A mid-level trough with associated lift and instability will continue to support widespread thunderstorms across primarily the mountainous terrain of the Interior West today. A few lightning fire starts are still possible, but fuel receptiveness remains less than ideal for widespread ignitions across the region due to antecedent and expected rainfall. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central U.S. today. The broad upper troughing west of the Rockies will encourage the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass, supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies and points east. Most of these storms are expected to be on the wet side, and given multiple past days of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fuels are not expected to be quite as dry as in previous days/weeks. While a couple of lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible, the overall threat seems too sparse to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2064 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeastern South Dakota and central/northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121617Z - 121715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms across central/northern Minnesota will pose a risk for small to severe hail. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across central Minnesota have produced occasional reports of hail up to 1 inch. Though MLCAPE is meager, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest there is ample MUCAPE aloft amid steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. This will continue to support a few instances of small to severe hail. Given the uncertainty on the duration and spatial coverage of this threat, a watch is unlikely. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 46259647 47889535 48249448 48279355 48219296 48019250 47179222 46309236 46039247 45069606 45039720 45499759 45849735 46259647 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025 Read more