Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the surface low will strengthen. ...Southern/central High Plains... Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe threat in localized areas. ...Northern Plains... Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this morning round of storms. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle, but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ...Midwest/western Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more