Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Recent surface observations from the southern CA coastal mountains continue to sample 25-40 mph gusts with RH ranging from the single digits to low 20s. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early to mid afternoon hours. Across the southern High Plains, modest surface pressure falls are noted with winds beginning to strengthen to around 15 mph. Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest areas of elevated conditions are possible, but fuel status remains marginal per recent fuel reports. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to dig through the Southeast and into part of the Mid-Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will remain strong in the West, though this feature should weaken through the day. ...Southern California... At least moderately strong offshore winds appear probable early this morning. While some RH recovery may occur overnight Saturday, RH of 15-20% can be reasonably expected across most areas with some lower values possible locally. Winds in the lower elevations, where fuels are driest, will be 15-25 mph. These winds will slowly diminish into the early afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible for a few hours. ...Southern High Plains... A weak lee trough is forecast to develop during the afternoon. This may promote 15-20 mph winds from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely remain low due to RH generally remaining above critical thresholds and fine fuels only being modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Recent surface observations from the southern CA coastal mountains continue to sample 25-40 mph gusts with RH ranging from the single digits to low 20s. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early to mid afternoon hours. Across the southern High Plains, modest surface pressure falls are noted with winds beginning to strengthen to around 15 mph. Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest areas of elevated conditions are possible, but fuel status remains marginal per recent fuel reports. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to dig through the Southeast and into part of the Mid-Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will remain strong in the West, though this feature should weaken through the day. ...Southern California... At least moderately strong offshore winds appear probable early this morning. While some RH recovery may occur overnight Saturday, RH of 15-20% can be reasonably expected across most areas with some lower values possible locally. Winds in the lower elevations, where fuels are driest, will be 15-25 mph. These winds will slowly diminish into the early afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible for a few hours. ...Southern High Plains... A weak lee trough is forecast to develop during the afternoon. This may promote 15-20 mph winds from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely remain low due to RH generally remaining above critical thresholds and fine fuels only being modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0720 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0720 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 10 16:02:01 UTC 2023.