Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue this evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/... The latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis show a progressive upper-level trough over the Ozarks, with a 50 to 06 knot mid-level jet evident in southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is moving southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Mosaic radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front from central Kentucky extending southwestward into north-central Mississippi and central Louisiana. These storms are located along the western edge of a weakly to moderately unstable airmass, and near the axis of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings this evening, along the axis of the strongest low-level flow, from central Mississippi into far southern Tennessee have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This will continue to be favorable for rotating storms this evening. As a line of strong to severe storms continues to organize, a few tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. A tornado threat may also exist with discrete rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. As the line progresses eastward, the wind-damage threat will continue, and be maximized with embedded supercells and bowing line segments. An isolated large hail threat will exist with supercells but should be more focused in the southwestern part of the slight where the strongest instability is located. Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, from south-central Mississippi into central Alabama, an isolated severe threat will continue tonight as low-level flow increases ahead of the cold front. Moderate instability is forecast to be maintained ahead of the front as moisture convection continues overnight. As the southern part of the line moves into this area later tonight, the potential for wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes is expected to increase...see MCD 2311. ..Broyles.. 12/10/2023 Read more

MD 2310 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 715... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 2310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Mississippi...extreme northwest Alabama...middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 715... Valid 092303Z - 100030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 715. All severe hazards remain possible into the evening. A locally higher tornado threat may materialize along or just north of the TN/AL border if discrete, dominant supercells can develop. DISCUSSION...A mix of embedded supercells and linear storm modes persist ahead of a cold front across middle TN into northern MS. These storms are approaching the eastern most bounds of Tornado Watch 714 and are entering Tornado Watch 715. Ahead of the ongoing band of storms, discrete convection is trying to mature, with a supercell structure trying to materialize in the Tishomingo County, MS area. The northeast extent of the better surface-based instability extends into middle TN to extreme northwest AL area, where mesoanalysis has shown an appreciable increase in the size and curvature of low-level hodographs (with effective SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 in spots). As such, any discrete storms that can mature into sustained supercells may support a locally higher tornado threat, and a strong tornado cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34308901 36178665 37378515 37418452 37108429 36298485 35448561 34838624 34498678 34318764 34308901 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LLQ TO 20 SSE GLH TO 10 NE GWO TO 20 SE UOX TO 20 E UOX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311 ..WENDT..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-063-075-093-107-119-125-127-133-100140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE GREENE LAMAR MARION PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-123-100140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL MSC001-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-037-049-051-053- 055-057-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-095-097- 099-101-103-105-115-121-123-125-127-129-149-155-159-163- Read more

MD 2309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern Texas into central/northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092242Z - 100015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds into the evening. The tornado threat is expected to be more marginal. A small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed depending on convective trends in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed along the cold front in far eastern Texas and west-central Louisiana. The strongest storm in Natchitoches Parish has exhibited supercell characteristics with a TBSS on KSHV/KPOE radars indicating potential for large hail. The 18Z LCH sounding showed some cooling aloft and modest erosion of a inversion around 800 mb. That warm layer aloft may hinder updrafts until stronger forcing arrives later his evening. The greatest threat for large hail will likely be over the next few hours when storms are more discrete. Storm coverage will increase and the mode will become more linear with time as the synoptic trough digs into the Southeast this evening/overnight. At that time, damaging winds would become the primary threat. Potential for tornadoes should remain more limited with low-level shear and hodograph curvature being rather modest per area VAD profiles. A small severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered, but coverage and intensity may not increase until storms move farther east. Trends will be monitored. ..Wendt/Goss.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30299404 30419443 30839455 31719415 32419314 32749260 32699236 32219211 31109213 30729240 30429305 30279397 30299404 Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLH TO 55 S CKV TO 45 NNE BWG. WW 714 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100100Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-169-171-227-100100- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE METCALFE MONROE WARREN MSC003-117-141-145-100100- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN PRENTISS TISHOMINGO UNION TNC021-037-071-081-099-101-111-119-149-159-165-169-181-187-189- 100100- Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLH TO 55 S CKV TO 45 NNE BWG. WW 714 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100100Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-169-171-227-100100- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE METCALFE MONROE WARREN MSC003-117-141-145-100100- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN PRENTISS TISHOMINGO UNION TNC021-037-071-081-099-101-111-119-149-159-165-169-181-187-189- 100100- Read more