Severe Storms

MD 2322 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 719... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN AL...AND WESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern AL...and western GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 719... Valid 101202Z - 101330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues. DISCUSSION...As large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough overspreads the Southeast, additional bands/clusters of convection have developed over the past couple of hours across parts of the FL Panhandle into southeastern AL and western GA. Messy storm modes and interactions, along with marginally favorable instability, have generally tempered the overall severe threat to some extent. Still, a narrow corridor of surface-based thunderstorm potential exists along and just ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level shear will continue to support updraft rotation in the short term with any embedded supercells within the broader swath of convection. The most favorable environment appears to be across parts of the FL Panhandle and vicinity, where a brief tornado and strong/gusty winds remain possible. More limited low-level moisture and weaker instability into central GA suggest that ongoing convection should gradually weaken as is moves eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30508626 31668570 32878446 32648376 30978476 29818508 29938559 30158597 30508626 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and the next few hours near the northeastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude synoptic troughing will shift eastward across the eastern CONUS through the period. This will be influenced substantially by a strong, basal perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery from southern IL across AR to south-central TX. This feature should assume a less-positive tilt through the day as it pivots eastward, reaching from eastern KY across AL and the western FL Panhandle by 00Z. Thereafter, the shortwave trough will eject northeastward, become more negatively tilted, and after 06Z, weaken substantially -- reaching eastern VA by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from western PA through WV, near TRI, then across eastern/southern AL to the central Gulf. The front should proceed eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. By 00Z, an elongated area of low pressure (and perhaps one or more discrete, weak lows) should develop along the front, expected to extend from northern New England to southeastern PA, then approximately down the Piedmont into southern GA, to the eastern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, a deepening low should consolidate on the front over or near RI, with the boundary extending across Atlantic waters to the FL Keys vicinity. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken band of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a tornado or two and damaging gusts for a few hours, as it shifts eastward through the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA, toward a region of more-stable boundary-layer air over and north of Apalachee Bay. The TLH sounding at 12Z sampled the eastern rim of the moist-unstable low/middle-level profiles well, atop a shallow/stable near-surface layer that may modify somewhat more favorably before the convection moves through the area. Effective SRH in the 150-200 J/kg range was noted, consistent with recent VWP there, and at Eglin AFB before flow veered. For near-term concerns, refer to the remainder of tornado watch 719 and associated mesoscale discussions. A relative minimum in severe probabilities (though not zero) is expected over portions of GA into western SC, where only partly modified, overland trajectories from FL and GA will render inflow- layer instability weak and marginal, at best. However, as the zone of strongest deep-layer ascent shifts eastward today, it will encounter a boundary layer destabilizing from both cloud-muted overland/diabatic heating and low-level theta-e advection off the Atlantic. This will ramp up wind and tornado probabilities again, as thunderstorms reorganize and intensify -- potentially in two episodes: 1. A zone of strengthening low-level convergence preceding the original convective band over easternmost SC, eastern NC and parts of southeastern VA, with activity forming in the warm sector over water and land and moving north-northeastward; 2. The initial main band of lift/convection reaching the same area late afternoon into this evening. In the destabilizing plume, surface dewpoints (already in the low 60s F) should increase to the mid/upper 60s by afternoon as the over-water airmass continues to modify favorably. Low/middle-level lapse rates will be modest but sufficient to support MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, in an environment of strengthening deep shear and somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. A few supercells and small bows will be possible with the warm-sector convection, amidst weak forcing but also weak CINH. The main band of convection may contain embedded supercells and/or LEWP/bowing circulations. Surface-based buoyancy will decrease northward and narrow in lateral extent over the Chesapeake Bay/eastern VA/MD region, but with some severe still possible. Farther south across FL, a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will offer isolated damaging-wind potential as it crosses from the Gulf into parts of western/northern FL, with some preconvective buoyancy maintained by veering winds off the Gulf. However, that veering will reduce vertical shear and convergence with time this evening, as instability weakens nocturnally, reducing severe potential eastward and southward over the peninsula. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/10/2023 Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PFN TO 25 NNE PFN TO 25 NNE DHN TO 35 SSE CSG TO 40 ENE CSG TO 40 NNE MCN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2322 ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC067-069-101340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-063-101340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF JACKSON GAC021-037-061-079-099-193-197-207-225-239-243-249-259-261-269- 273-293-307-101340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW TO 35 NE CEW TO 20 ESE TOI TO 5 SSW CSG TO 20 ESE LGC TO 25 SSE ATL. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-113-101240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON RUSSELL FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-131-133-101240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC021-037-053-061-079-099-145-171-193-197-199-207-215-225-231- 239-243-249-259-261-263-269-273-293-307-101240- GA Read more

MD 2321 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 719... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL...AND WESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern AL...and western GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 719... Valid 101000Z - 101130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning. DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL, and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the cold front. ..Gleason.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529 29978567 30268631 30358685 Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CEW TO 25 SW TOI TO 25 SSW AUO TO 5 W AUO TO 10 ESE LGC TO 25 S ATL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321 ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-031-039-041-045-061-067-069-081-087-109-113-101140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL FLC005-013-045-059-063-131-133-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC021-037-053-061-079-099-145-171-193-197-199-207-215-225-231- Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW GZH TO 25 SSW MGM TO 25 WSW AUO TO 10 SE LGC TO 20 WSW ATL. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-101- 109-113-101040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL FLC033-059-063-091-113-131-133-101040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC021-037-053-061-077-079-099-145-171-193-197-199-207-215-225- Read more

MD 2320 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 717...718...719... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern AL into western GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 717...718...719... Valid 100802Z - 100930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 717, 718, 719 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will spread eastward early this morning. DISCUSSION...A small, linear complex continues to move east-northeastward across far eastern AL into western GA. Damaging winds should remain the primary concern with this short line segment in the short term. Father south, isolated supercells have developed across southern AL into the northern Gulf in a low-level warm-advection regime ahead of a loosely organized line of showers and thunderstorms. Recent VWPs from various radars across this area show sufficient 0-1-km SRH for continued updraft rotation, and a few tornadoes remain possible for at least a couple more hours early this morning with these supercells. The eastern extent of the severe risk into central GA remains constrained by more limited low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30148798 31778785 32178757 32408667 33048604 33608586 33958570 34388513 34418492 34368467 34058461 33628455 33238429 33058377 31448473 30438645 30148798 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more