Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW CTY TO 15 SSE CTY TO 15 WSW JAX. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-017-053-075-083-101-119-125-102140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS HERNANDO LEVY MARION PASCO SUMTER UNION GMZ850-102140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...NORTHEASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101805Z - 102030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive theta-e advection should destabilize the coastal air mass amid filtered diurnal heating in cloud breaks. The increasing surface-based instability (albeit weak), coupled with strengthening low/deep-layer shear -- characterized by increasingly large clockwise-turning low-level hodographs -- will favor a gradual increase in severe-storm potential through the afternoon. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35047789 34717867 34387909 33997918 33677905 33617865 33747796 33987750 34587645 35127549 35917541 36497561 36767578 36867626 36807675 36307698 35577722 35047789 Read more

MD 2327 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PARTS OF NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 2327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 101844Z - 102015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Some uptick in the severe threat is possible this afternoon, including the potential for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of an extensive QLCS is moving across the northern FL Peninsula early this afternoon. The inland portion of this QLCS has recently remained subsevere, but some diurnal heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates through the afternoon may support an uptick in damaging-wind potential as the line continues to move eastward, especially as a stronger line segment noted west-northwest of Tampa eventually moves onshore. Also, some increase in low-level flow/shear is expected with time, in response to a shortwave trough quickly approaching the area from the west. This may support some threat for a brief, line-embedded tornado or two later this afternoon. Some local expansion of the watch may be needed later this afternoon, depending on the evolution of offshore convection and also the line segment currently noted west of Jacksonville. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 27928337 28478338 29078355 29588352 30228303 30268292 30668266 30688224 30208197 29748202 29638208 28428237 27998271 27928337 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more