Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat is expected to continue this evening near Cape Hatteras. Elsewhere across the continental United States, a severe threat is not expected. ...Far Eastern North Carolina... At the surface, a cold front is currently located in western North Carolina, in the vicinity of Greensboro and Charlotte. Thunderstorms are ongoing well to the east of the front across eastern North Carolina, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F. In addition, the Morehead City WSR-88D VWP has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2. This suggests that a marginal tornado threat should continue this evening, as storms move northeastward across the Outer Banks. The tornado potential will be minimal, and is expected to gradually diminish as the cold front approaches the coast later tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/11/2023 Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EWN TO 35 ESE ORF. ..SPC..12/11/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC031-055-095-110140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTERET DARE HYDE AMZ135-154-156-ANZ658-110140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PAMLICO SOUND S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EWN TO 35 ESE ORF. ..SPC..12/11/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC031-055-095-110140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTERET DARE HYDE AMZ135-154-156-ANZ658-110140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PAMLICO SOUND S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 721 TORNADO NC VA CW 101830Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist environment and stronger deep-layer/low-level winds will support a long duration (into this evening) of at least isolated severe storm potential, including a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Norfolk VA to 20 miles west of Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S EWN TO 35 SSW ECG TO 30 ENE RZZ TO 30 ESE RIC. ..SPC..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC029-031-041-053-055-073-095-139-143-110040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HYDE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC073-093-095-175-181-199-550-620-650-700-710-735-740-800-810- 830-110040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GLOUCESTER ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY SOUTHAMPTON SURRY YORK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE FRANKLIN HAMPTON Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 10 23:45:05 UTC 2023.

MD 2329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 721... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 721... Valid 102153Z - 102330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 721 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe threat continues across portions of Tornado Watch 721. DISCUSSION...Latest observational data suggests two main corridors that remain at least locally favorable for severe thunderstorms across Tornado Watch 721. Off the Carolinas coast, a band of showers and thunderstorms driven by low/midlevel warm advection are streaming northward toward coastal NC, and some of these storms have exhibited transient organization given ample low/deep-layer shear. While instability over land is marginal, there is still some potential that this activity could affect immediate coast areas and pose a brief tornado risk and/or damaging-wind threat. Farther north from north-central NC into southeast VA, the AKQ VWP is sampling 50 kt near 1 km AGL, which is yielding strong low-level shear with ample low-level hodograph curvature. Similarly, weak instability has generally limited updraft strength, though subtle backing of the low-level flow and substantial pressure falls may provide some focus for thunderstorms into the evening. If any storms can root at the surface, a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34417734 34547787 34797820 35577832 37237781 37697742 37737707 37617653 37047598 36137576 35397598 34897616 34597655 34417734 Read more

MD 2328 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PARTS OF NORTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 2328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north into west-central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 102151Z - 102315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado may persist through the remainder of the afternoon, but additional watch issuance is considered unlikely. DISCUSSION...An extensive band of convection has moved through north into west-central Florida this afternoon. Storms have largely remained subsevere thus far, with maximum wind gusts generally in the 40-45 mph range. Deep-layer shear remains strong across the region, and short-term guidance and the recent VWPs from KTBW suggest there has been some increase in southwesterly low-level flow. However, satellite and lightning trends indicate a general decrease in storm intensity over the last hour. With stronger large-scale ascent expected generally remain west and north of the region, and limited potential for any additional destabilization, substantial reintensification appears unlikely. The strongest storms may pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado through the remainder of the afternoon, but with the threat expected to remain generally marginal and isolated, additional watch issuance is unlikely after the 22 UTC expiration of WW 720. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29228271 29618212 29408174 28488161 27688165 27308167 26898180 26708232 27158240 27648249 28058256 28848270 29228271 Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE OAJ TO 25 NE EWN TO 35 W ECG TO 20 NE RZZ TO 15 W RIC. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-029-031-041-053-055-073-095-137-139-143-177-187-102340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HYDE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC036-073-093-095-097-101-127-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-620- 650-670-700-710-730-735-740-800-810-830-102340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLES CITY GLOUCESTER ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM NEW KENT PRINCE GEORGE SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX YORK Read more

WW 721 TORNADO NC VA CW 101830Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist environment and stronger deep-layer/low-level winds will support a long duration (into this evening) of at least isolated severe storm potential, including a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Norfolk VA to 20 miles west of Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 720 TORNADO FL CW 101615Z - 102200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1115 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms with a damaging wind and tornado risk, at least on an isolated basis, are expected to continue across parts of northern Florida through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Cross City FL to 45 miles west southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more