Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2330 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 2330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Areas affected...Portions of New York into northern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 110806Z - 111400Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with rates up to around 0.75 to 1 inch per hour, should persist across parts of New York into New England this morning. DISCUSSION...A pronounced upper trough will continue to progress east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this morning. A surface low near southern New England will consolidate and deepen further over the next several hours as it develops northward into ME. A cold front has cleared most of the Mid-Atlantic Coast early this morning, with low-level cold advection occurring in its wake across parts of NY and New England. Low-level thermal profiles behind the cold front are marginal to support snow, with many surface observations reporting temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Still, pronounced ascent preceding the upper trough and strong low-level frontogenetic forcing are supporting a swath of precipitation extending from the eastern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Cooling thermal profiles aloft are aiding a transition from rain to snow behind the cold front, especially at higher elevations. A band of moderate to heavy snow, with snowfall rates up to around 0.75 to 1 inch per hour, should extend from parts of eastern NY into VT, northern NH, and western/northern ME for several hours this morning. This band is expected to shift gradually east-northeastward in tandem with the upper trough progression for the next several hours. ..Gleason.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42497528 43307502 44767417 45057336 45067167 45367132 45417089 46757005 47466930 47446901 47186886 46566917 45606995 44577108 43937215 43347278 43287363 42727405 42037411 41947489 42497528 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level. While a rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area. 2. Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by the end of the period. Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support a thunderstorm area until day 2. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level. While a rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area. 2. Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by the end of the period. Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support a thunderstorm area until day 2. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level. While a rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area. 2. Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by the end of the period. Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support a thunderstorm area until day 2. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level. While a rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area. 2. Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by the end of the period. Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support a thunderstorm area until day 2. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level. While a rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area. 2. Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by the end of the period. Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support a thunderstorm area until day 2. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level. While a rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area. 2. Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by the end of the period. Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support a thunderstorm area until day 2. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023 Read more